Fighting Withdrawal
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 840 (191 on the archive and 652 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 382
Defender wins (Russian): 458
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 1
Defender wins (Russian): 0
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 2
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 2
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2026-02-21 | Won | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-02-04 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2025-11-08 | D | Lost |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-10-13 | Won | |
| 932 | 841 | 63% | 2025-08-16 | Won | |
| 692 | 1000 | 15% | 2025-07-28 | Lost | |
| 977 | 919 | 58% | 2025-06-25 | Lost | |
| 1061 | 1009 | 57% | 2025-04-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 869 | 68% | 2025-01-24 | Lost | |
| 1217 | 996 | 78% | 2024-11-15 | Won | |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2024-07-23 | Won | |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-06-28 | D | Lost |
| 959 | 1123 | 28% | 2024-04-13 | Lost | |
| 878 | 1000 | 33% | 2024-03-22 | Lost | |
| 966 | 973 | 49% | 2024-03-14 | Won | |
| 1053 | 1000 | 58% | 2024-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2024-02-14 | Lost | |
| 990 | 1000 | 49% | 2024-01-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 990 | 51% | 2024-01-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2023-10-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2023-10-03 | A | Won |
| 999 | 1000 | 50% | 2023-09-16 | Won | |
| 1037 | 1037 | 50% | 2023-09-02 | Won | |
| 950 | 970 | 47% | 2023-08-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1050 | 43% | 2023-07-08 | Won | |
| 907 | 1075 | 28% | 2023-07-08 | Lost | |
| 907 | 966 | 42% | 2023-05-19 | Won | |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2023-04-13 | Lost | |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2023-04-03 | Won | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-01-17 | Lost | |
| 1015 | 1000 | 52% | 2022-12-16 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2022-11-26 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2022-09-18 | Won | |
| 996 | 1152 | 29% | 2022-06-06 | Won | |
| 1016 | 966 | 57% | 2022-02-21 | Won | |
| 996 | 960 | 55% | 2021-10-20 | Won | |
| 1038 | 964 | 60% | 2021-09-05 | Won | |
| 939 | 1167 | 21% | 2021-08-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 982 | 53% | 2021-05-06 | Lost | |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2021-04-22 | Lost | |
| 1227 | 1014 | 77% | 2021-04-22 | Lost | |
| 1217 | 1000 | 78% | 2021-04-17 | Lost | |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1222 | 1000 | 78% | 2021-02-15 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2021-01-20 | Lost | |
| 960 | 1152 | 25% | 2020-12-03 | Lost | |
| 992 | 977 | 52% | 2020-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2020-07-17 | Lost | |
| 1164 | 966 | 76% | 2020-05-20 | Lost | |
| 966 | 935 | 54% | 2020-04-21 | Lost | |
| 996 | 1217 | 22% | 2020-04-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2020-03-10 | Lost | |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2020-03-04 | Lost | |
| 1139 | 1000 | 69% | 2020-03-03 | Won | |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2020-02-03 | Lost | |
| 944 | 843 | 64% | 2020-01-25 | Won | |
| 920 | 1000 | 39% | 2020-01-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2020-01-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2019-12-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2019-12-18 | Lost | |
| 1057 | 1172 | 34% | 2019-11-29 | Lost | |
| 1009 | 966 | 56% | 2019-11-09 | Lost | |
| 987 | 1075 | 38% | 2019-10-24 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2019-07-14 | Lost | |
| 916 | 998 | 38% | 2019-03-23 | Lost | |
| 966 | 989 | 47% | 2019-03-15 | Won | |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2018-12-30 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2018-12-28 | Lost | |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2018-12-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2018-11-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2018-11-04 | Lost | |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2018-08-04 | Won | |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2018-07-22 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-05-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1132 | 32% | 2018-04-21 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2018-04-03 | Lost | |
| 930 | 1052 | 33% | 2018-01-20 | Lost | |
| 1052 | 930 | 67% | 2018-01-06 | Won | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2018-01-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2017-12-20 | Lost | |
| 1075 | 1093 | 47% | 2017-11-29 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2017-11-19 | Lost | |
| 1080 | 1077 | 50% | 2017-06-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2017-06-13 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2017-05-14 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2017-05-01 | Won | |
| 904 | 948 | 44% | 2017-03-10 | Lost | |
| 1075 | 894 | 74% | 2017-02-25 | Won | |
| 926 | 1176 | 19% | 2016-10-26 | Lost | |
| 892 | 1000 | 35% | 2016-09-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1217 | 22% | 2016-06-27 | Lost | |
| 1217 | 1000 | 78% | 2016-05-01 | Won | |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-02-14 | Won | |
| 981 | 846 | 69% | 2016-02-14 | Won | |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2015-10-15 | Won | |
| 1075 | 935 | 69% | 2015-09-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 962 | 55% | 2015-09-13 | Lost | |
| 1052 | 987 | 59% | 2015-07-14 | Won | |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2015-06-24 | Won | |
| 968 | 1071 | 36% | 2015-05-17 | Lost | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2015-05-15 | Lost | |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2015-05-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 971 | 54% | 2015-04-21 | Lost | |
| 970 | 983 | 48% | 2015-01-01 | Won | |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2014-11-08 | Lost | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2014-05-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2014-05-08 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2014-04-12 | Lost | |
| 948 | 904 | 56% | 2014-02-12 | Won | |
| 870 | 1000 | 32% | 2014-01-20 | Lost | |
| 1003 | 1000 | 50% | 2013-12-15 | Lost | |
| 1075 | 1033 | 56% | 2013-11-15 | Won | |
| 932 | 1075 | 31% | 2013-10-29 | Lost | |
| 976 | 1000 | 47% | 2013-09-29 | Lost | |
| 976 | 1000 | 47% | 2013-08-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 976 | 53% | 2013-08-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2013-07-01 | Won | |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2013-06-29 | Won | |
| 976 | 1000 | 47% | 2013-06-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1107 | 35% | 2013-04-29 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1107 | 35% | 2013-03-30 | Lost | |
| 1008 | 820 | 75% | 2013-03-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 976 | 53% | 2013-03-18 | Won | |
| 900 | 1000 | 36% | 2013-01-23 | Won | |
| 951 | 891 | 59% | 2013-01-07 | Lost | |
| 951 | 862 | 63% | 2013-01-07 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2012-12-12 | Lost | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-06-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2012-05-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1012 | 48% | 2012-04-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1020 | 47% | 2012-03-12 | Lost | |
| 917 | 1071 | 29% | 2012-01-20 | Lost | |
| 1196 | 1000 | 76% | 2011-10-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2011-10-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2011-10-08 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2011-09-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2011-08-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2011-06-27 | Lost | |
| 1167 | 1000 | 72% | 2011-06-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2011-06-25 | Won | |
| 1020 | 1000 | 53% | 2011-06-25 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2011-06-24 | Won | |
| 1028 | 968 | 59% | 2011-05-28 | Won | |
| 1233 | 1101 | 68% | 2011-05-08 | Won | |
| 1167 | 939 | 79% | 2011-04-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2011-02-05 | Lost | |
| 913 | 985 | 40% | 2011-01-02 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1125 | 33% | 2010-12-10 | Lost | |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2010-09-04 | Won | |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2010-08-26 | Won | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2010-08-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2010-07-12 | Won | |
| 1101 | 1233 | 32% | 2010-07-04 | Lost | |
| 1025 | 1000 | 54% | 2010-06-25 | Won | |
| 988 | 1057 | 40% | 2010-06-13 | Lost | |
| 988 | 1057 | 40% | 2010-06-11 | Lost | |
| 1103 | 927 | 73% | 2010-06-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2010-04-23 | Lost | |
| 963 | 1000 | 45% | 2010-02-05 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1039 | 44% | 2009-05-23 | Lost | |
| 1219 | 981 | 80% | 2009-04-22 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2009-01-19 | Won | |
| 839 | 1090 | 19% | 2009-01-10 | Lost | |
| 893 | 1167 | 17% | 2008-08-04 | Lost | |
| 1196 | 1000 | 76% | 2008-06-10 | Won | |
| 1087 | 1152 | 41% | 2008-03-06 | Won | |
| 1060 | 1192 | 32% | 2007-11-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 915 | 62% | 2007-10-01 | Won | |
| 1012 | 1000 | 52% | 2007-08-14 | Won | |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2007-01-19 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2006-08-16 | Lost | |
| 1076 | 917 | 71% | 2006-07-09 | Won | |
| 1056 | 933 | 67% | 2006-01-11 | Won | |
| 1014 | 907 | 65% | 2004-12-04 | Won | |
| 988 | 1057 | 40% | 2004-11-07 | Lost | |
| 1015 | 891 | 67% | 2004-10-09 | Won | |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2004-02-18 | Lost | |
| 1120 | 907 | 77% | 2003-11-02 | Won | |
| 827 | 1000 | 27% | 2001-10-17 | Lost | |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2001-01-08 | Won | |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2000-04-01 | Won | |
| 1074 | 1011 | 59% | 1999-04-02 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1100 | 36% | 1998-11-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1078 | 39% | 1998-09-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 949 | 57% | 1998-08-04 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 1998-02-10 | Lost | |
| 973 | 1000 | 46% | 1997-05-01 | Lost | |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 1997-02-01 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 1994-03-01 | Won | |
| 1140 | 1000 | 69% | 1993-03-03 | Won | |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 1991-02-23 | Lost |
Attacking (84 wins) average ELOs: 1015.7 vs 1016.2 has a 49.92% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).