The Commissar's House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 399 (71 on the archive and 328 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 204
Defender wins (Russian): 195
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1002 | 919 | 62% | 2025-09-06 | Won |
| 1019 | 991 | 54% | 2024-08-19 | Won |
| 1019 | 991 | 54% | 2024-08-04 | Lost |
| 979 | 938 | 56% | 2024-06-28 | Won |
| 1065 | 1162 | 36% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2023-12-30 | Lost |
| 983 | 984 | 50% | 2023-08-14 | Lost |
| 993 | 1010 | 48% | 2022-10-16 | Lost |
| 913 | 887 | 54% | 2022-09-28 | Won |
| 1144 | 989 | 71% | 2022-07-03 | Won |
| 1022 | 876 | 70% | 2022-03-07 | Won |
| 1228 | 1118 | 65% | 2021-10-14 | Won |
| 1228 | 1017 | 77% | 2021-10-14 | Won |
| 1063 | 967 | 63% | 2021-06-30 | Won |
| 1110 | 1206 | 37% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 984 | 1173 | 25% | 2021-06-09 | Lost |
| 937 | 988 | 43% | 2021-05-06 | Lost |
| 913 | 1015 | 36% | 2021-03-24 | Lost |
| 1173 | 984 | 75% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2021-02-25 | Lost |
| 1057 | 988 | 60% | 2020-07-06 | Won |
| 1064 | 1295 | 21% | 2019-12-04 | Won |
| 971 | 937 | 55% | 2019-11-27 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1064 | 58% | 2019-02-08 | Lost |
| 889 | 998 | 35% | 2018-09-25 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1046 | 50% | 2018-08-03 | Lost |
| 975 | 975 | 50% | 2018-06-30 | Won |
| 1037 | 1007 | 54% | 2018-06-01 | Won |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2018-05-21 | Lost |
| 1142 | 991 | 70% | 2018-05-06 | Won |
| 972 | 1048 | 39% | 2018-02-01 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1025 | 54% | 2018-01-01 | Lost |
| 948 | 938 | 51% | 2017-06-12 | Won |
| 932 | 957 | 46% | 2017-05-11 | Lost |
| 894 | 1064 | 27% | 2017-04-22 | Lost |
| 958 | 988 | 46% | 2017-01-26 | Won |
| 938 | 879 | 58% | 2016-10-07 | Won |
| 1064 | 958 | 65% | 2016-06-23 | Won |
| 968 | 1071 | 36% | 2015-04-29 | Lost |
| 843 | 1064 | 22% | 2013-11-04 | Lost |
| 1099 | 965 | 68% | 2013-08-17 | Won |
| 900 | 1077 | 27% | 2013-01-27 | Won |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-09-20 | Won |
| 938 | 1012 | 40% | 2012-09-20 | Won |
| 931 | 1071 | 31% | 2012-07-22 | Won |
| 998 | 938 | 59% | 2011-09-20 | Won |
| 943 | 1108 | 28% | 2011-08-07 | Lost |
| 884 | 1102 | 22% | 2011-02-24 | Lost |
| 960 | 968 | 49% | 2010-12-22 | Won |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2010-10-18 | Won |
| 989 | 843 | 70% | 2010-10-10 | Won |
| 1040 | 970 | 60% | 2009-10-04 | Lost |
| 1052 | 904 | 70% | 2009-10-03 | Won |
| 1134 | 938 | 76% | 2009-05-09 | Won |
| 919 | 938 | 47% | 2007-10-30 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1073 | 48% | 2006-09-09 | Lost |
| 1011 | 943 | 60% | 2006-07-08 | Lost |
| 1146 | 933 | 77% | 2004-11-22 | Won |
| 928 | 927 | 50% | 2004-06-15 | Lost |
| 613 | 1101 | 6% | 2001-11-17 | Won |
| 913 | 975 | 41% | 2001-05-21 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1022 | 86% | 2000-01-20 | Won |
| 1074 | 1075 | 50% | 1999-01-25 | Won |
| 1160 | 1038 | 67% | 1998-12-05 | Won |
| 1056 | 1096 | 44% | 1998-07-22 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1036 | 52% | 1998-04-09 | Won |
| 1019 | 1049 | 46% | 1995-10-01 | Won |
| 1162 | 911 | 81% | 1994-02-03 | Lost |
| 984 | 1075 | 37% | 1991-05-01 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1018 | 53% | Lost | |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | Won |
Attacking (38 wins) average ELOs: 1016.2 vs 1008 has a 51.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).