Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 478 (59 on the archive and 419 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 239
Defender wins (American): 239
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1026 | 977 | 57% | 2022-01-14 | Won |
983 | 983 | 50% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
975 | 964 | 52% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
983 | 983 | 50% | 2021-12-29 | Lost |
1013 | 1083 | 40% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
1094 | 1152 | 42% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
961 | 1009 | 43% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
964 | 975 | 48% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
1100 | 1055 | 56% | 2019-03-01 | Won |
1311 | 998 | 86% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
949 | 906 | 56% | 2018-02-14 | Won |
1005 | 998 | 51% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
988 | 1031 | 44% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
991 | 986 | 51% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
895 | 915 | 47% | 2016-10-14 | Won |
1145 | 1115 | 54% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
1018 | 1013 | 51% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
1144 | 968 | 73% | 2016-03-14 | Won |
1046 | 1128 | 38% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
994 | 959 | 55% | 2016-03-12 | Won |
938 | 1188 | 19% | 2015-09-21 | Lost |
849 | 994 | 30% | 2015-06-27 | Won |
968 | 1144 | 27% | 2015-06-23 | Won |
1095 | 1275 | 26% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
997 | 1023 | 46% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
997 | 968 | 54% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
901 | 952 | 43% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
1075 | 984 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
1068 | 917 | 70% | 2012-04-02 | Won |
816 | 1095 | 17% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
1115 | 976 | 69% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
1197 | 1037 | 72% | 2010-12-04 | Won |
968 | 1008 | 44% | 2010-11-12 | Lost |
1072 | 1040 | 55% | 2010-03-12 | Lost |
1090 | 1050 | 56% | 2009-10-09 | Won |
913 | 1157 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
1088 | 1157 | 40% | 2009-09-10 | Won |
1138 | 1115 | 53% | 2009-07-09 | Lost |
1135 | 967 | 72% | 2009-06-08 | Won |
1142 | 1052 | 63% | 2008-06-15 | Lost |
968 | 919 | 57% | 2008-04-18 | Won |
902 | 1010 | 35% | 2008-03-20 | Lost |
919 | 968 | 43% | 2008-02-16 | Lost |
1015 | 1197 | 26% | 2007-11-18 | Won |
1087 | 890 | 76% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
1226 | 1300 | 40% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
1360 | 1300 | 59% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
1027 | 862 | 72% | 2007-01-13 | Won |
1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2005-12-20 | Lost |
916 | 968 | 43% | 2004-11-19 | Won |
1086 | 1095 | 49% | 2004-10-31 | Lost |
929 | 992 | 41% | 2002-01-19 | Won |
920 | 1097 | 27% | 2000-04-29 | Won |
992 | 1066 | 40% | 1999-11-30 | Lost |
945 | 1083 | 31% | 1997-12-25 | Won |
1001 | 1227 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Won |
Attacking (33 wins) average ELOs: 1024.4 vs 1033.9 has a 48.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).