Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 494 (72 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 255
Defender wins (American): 239
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 910 | 925 | 48% | 2024-12-20 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1031 | 48% | 2024-01-13 | Won |
| 1162 | 1111 | 57% | 2023-05-01 | Won |
| 1025 | 985 | 56% | 2022-01-14 | Won |
| 997 | 1049 | 43% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2021-12-30 | Lost |
| 997 | 1049 | 43% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 997 | 1049 | 43% | 2021-12-29 | Lost |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1053 | 914 | 69% | 2021-12-29 | Won |
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2021-12-28 | Won |
| 879 | 962 | 38% | 2021-12-18 | Lost |
| 909 | 1036 | 32% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1228 | 31% | 2021-02-06 | Lost |
| 973 | 928 | 56% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 914 | 1053 | 31% | 2020-12-27 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1007 | 63% | 2020-12-21 | Won |
| 1104 | 1074 | 54% | 2019-03-01 | Won |
| 1339 | 998 | 88% | 2019-01-29 | Lost |
| 949 | 904 | 56% | 2018-02-14 | Won |
| 1005 | 1032 | 46% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2017-05-28 | Won |
| 1107 | 986 | 67% | 2016-12-22 | Lost |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 986 | 851 | 69% | 2016-11-13 | Won |
| 897 | 932 | 45% | 2016-10-14 | Won |
| 1144 | 1096 | 57% | 2016-08-01 | Lost |
| 987 | 909 | 61% | 2016-03-29 | Won |
| 1143 | 1020 | 67% | 2016-03-14 | Won |
| 941 | 959 | 47% | 2016-03-12 | Won |
| 1098 | 1064 | 55% | 2016-03-12 | Lost |
| 938 | 1220 | 16% | 2015-09-21 | Lost |
| 806 | 941 | 31% | 2015-06-27 | Won |
| 1020 | 1143 | 33% | 2015-06-23 | Won |
| 1163 | 1203 | 44% | 2015-05-04 | Won |
| 987 | 1024 | 45% | 2012-12-01 | Won |
| 987 | 1020 | 45% | 2012-12-01 | Lost |
| 901 | 951 | 43% | 2012-10-04 | Won |
| 1075 | 983 | 63% | 2012-09-16 | Lost |
| 1067 | 917 | 70% | 2012-04-02 | Won |
| 1114 | 1163 | 43% | 2012-01-25 | Lost |
| 920 | 976 | 42% | 2011-01-01 | Lost |
| 1197 | 1041 | 71% | 2010-12-04 | Won |
| 1020 | 1060 | 44% | 2010-11-12 | Lost |
| 1069 | 1039 | 54% | 2010-03-12 | Lost |
| 1086 | 1170 | 38% | 2009-10-09 | Won |
| 906 | 1151 | 20% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1151 | 41% | 2009-09-10 | Won |
| 1138 | 920 | 78% | 2009-07-09 | Lost |
| 1125 | 967 | 71% | 2009-06-08 | Won |
| 1115 | 1104 | 52% | 2008-06-15 | Lost |
| 1020 | 920 | 64% | 2008-04-18 | Won |
| 903 | 1009 | 35% | 2008-03-20 | Lost |
| 920 | 1020 | 36% | 2008-02-16 | Lost |
| 1015 | 1146 | 32% | 2007-11-18 | Won |
| 1052 | 890 | 72% | 2007-09-30 | Won |
| 1413 | 1329 | 62% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1329 | 17% | 2007-06-06 | Lost |
| 976 | 862 | 66% | 2007-01-13 | Won |
| 1070 | 1039 | 54% | 2006-01-14 | Won |
| 1046 | 1046 | 50% | 2005-12-20 | Lost |
| 1182 | 1020 | 72% | 2004-11-19 | Won |
| 1085 | 1117 | 45% | 2004-10-31 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1218 | 41% | 2004-05-16 | Won |
| 929 | 986 | 42% | 2002-01-19 | Won |
| 920 | 1100 | 26% | 2000-04-29 | Won |
| 1061 | 1152 | 37% | 1999-11-30 | Lost |
| 940 | 1036 | 37% | 1997-12-25 | Won |
| 999 | 1228 | 21% | 1996-11-15 | Won |
| 911 | 1162 | 19% | 1993-03-12 | Won |
Attacking (42 wins) average ELOs: 1029.9 vs 1042.4 has a 48.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).