Point of No Return
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (12 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 40
Defender wins (New Zealand): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1145 | 1000 | 70% | 2025-04-29 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2021-04-11 | | Won |
| 1156 | 952 | 76% | 2020-05-29 | | Won |
| 1263 | 953 | 86% | 2019-11-16 | | Won |
| 1037 | 1129 | 37% | 2019-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1052 | 987 | 59% | 2019-04-16 | | Won |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2019-01-11 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-04-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2015-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 1006 | 62% | 2011-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1192 | 1031 | 72% | 2009-09-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 1995-01-07 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1099.4 vs 1012.4 has a 62.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).