Point of No Return
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 72 (12 on the archive and 60 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 40
Defender wins (New Zealand): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1151 | 1000 | 70% | 2025-04-29 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2021-04-11 | | Won |
| 1119 | 1075 | 56% | 2020-05-29 | | Won |
| 1242 | 953 | 84% | 2019-11-16 | | Won |
| 987 | 1129 | 31% | 2019-06-29 | | Lost |
| 1085 | 966 | 66% | 2019-04-16 | | Won |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-01-11 | | Lost |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-04-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 948 | 57% | 2015-03-01 | | Lost |
| 1062 | 1005 | 58% | 2011-04-01 | | Lost |
| 1194 | 1022 | 73% | 2009-09-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 1995-01-07 | | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1090.2 vs 1020.8 has a 59.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).