Sea of Tranquility
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (11 on the archive and 37 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 23
Defender wins (Japanese): 24
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 818 | 1056 | 20% | 2024-07-18 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 818 | 80% | 2024-05-01 | | Won |
| 1011 | 986 | 54% | 2023-03-13 | | Lost |
| 986 | 1013 | 46% | 2021-03-28 | | Lost |
| 1073 | 1131 | 42% | 2020-05-23 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 1024 | 57% | 2019-05-16 | | Won |
| 1135 | 898 | 80% | 2016-12-07 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2015-09-06 | | Lost |
| 1063 | 1064 | 50% | 2011-05-07 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1122 | 59% | 2006-09-07 | | Tied |
| 1150 | 1160 | 49% | 2001-02-18 | | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1049.8 vs 1034.5 has a 52.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).