Round One
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 157 (31 on the archive and 126 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 82
Defender wins (Polish): 75
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 2026-05-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1062 | 41% | 2024-08-05 | | Lost |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-01-08 | | Won |
| 1102 | 872 | 79% | 2021-11-08 | | Lost |
| 979 | 1000 | 47% | 2021-10-12 | | Lost |
| 1292 | 1089 | 76% | 2020-09-19 | | Lost |
| 1082 | 960 | 67% | 2020-01-13 | | Lost |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2019-12-10 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 1000 | 69% | 2019-04-30 | | Lost |
| 920 | 996 | 39% | 2015-11-19 | | Lost |
| 941 | 1000 | 42% | 2015-09-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1008 | 49% | 2015-08-27 | | Lost |
| 1292 | 1028 | 82% | 2015-02-16 | | Won |
| 876 | 1074 | 24% | 2014-10-23 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 876 | 76% | 2014-10-02 | | Won |
| 1032 | 994 | 55% | 2013-05-24 | | Won |
| 957 | 1097 | 31% | 2011-10-04 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2010-04-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2010-04-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2009-05-03 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2007-11-17 | | Won |
| 1174 | 1000 | 73% | 2003-07-25 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2001-11-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1149 | 30% | 2000-06-15 | | Lost |
| 1058 | 1000 | 58% | 2000-02-04 | | Lost |
| 969 | 1032 | 41% | 1999-10-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 1999-03-26 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1183 | 26% | 1999-03-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1196 | 24% | 1999-03-06 | | Won |
| 780 | 1141 | 11% | 1999-01-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 921 | 61% | 1998-11-17 | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1021.4 vs 1038.9 has a 47.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).