Counterattack on the Vistula
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 64 (30 on the archive and 34 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 25
Defender wins (Russian): 39
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1121 | 1109 | 52% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 1021 | 1023 | 50% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 934 | 1009 | 39% | 2021-05-03 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1175 | 31% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 956 | 1223 | 18% | 2020-08-21 | Won |
| 931 | 951 | 47% | 2020-08-17 | Won |
| 1000 | 1173 | 27% | 2020-03-24 | Won |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1058 | 949 | 65% | 2018-10-27 | Lost |
| 1044 | 949 | 63% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 970 | 903 | 60% | 2018-04-07 | Won |
| 1162 | 1157 | 51% | 2018-02-26 | Lost |
| 1140 | 840 | 85% | 2017-08-05 | Won |
| 1158 | 1236 | 39% | 2017-07-27 | Won |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2017-07-16 | Lost |
| 1219 | 960 | 82% | 2017-06-27 | Won |
| 959 | 877 | 62% | 2016-10-25 | Won |
| 869 | 1027 | 29% | 2016-06-18 | Lost |
| 879 | 1058 | 26% | 2015-01-10 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1158 | 31% | 2015-01-06 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1236 | 39% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1158 | 31% | 2014-01-01 | Won |
| 1047 | 963 | 62% | 2012-08-20 | Lost |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2011-06-17 | Won |
| 1116 | 1083 | 55% | 2009-04-07 | Lost |
| 945 | 1111 | 28% | 2007-04-26 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1412 | 9% | 2007-02-03 | Lost |
| 977 | 1412 | 8% | 2006-07-16 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1081 | 58% | 2006-04-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 966 | 70% | | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1038.9 vs 1081.8 has a 43.85% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).