Bread Factory #2
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 381 (65 on the archive and 316 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 181
Defender wins (Russian): 200
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1002 | 1054 | 43% | 2025-10-09 | Won |
| 865 | 865 | 50% | 2024-12-27 | Won |
| 1024 | 889 | 69% | 2024-03-17 | Won |
| 1142 | 1002 | 69% | 2024-02-25 | Won |
| 1033 | 1009 | 53% | 2023-08-15 | Lost |
| 980 | 995 | 48% | 2023-05-26 | Lost |
| 1200 | 1191 | 51% | 2023-01-08 | Won |
| 1047 | 864 | 74% | 2022-05-27 | Won |
| 864 | 1047 | 26% | 2022-05-26 | Lost |
| 968 | 1135 | 28% | 2022-03-13 | Lost |
| 968 | 1135 | 28% | 2022-03-06 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1158 | 30% | 2021-12-12 | Lost |
| 986 | 1013 | 46% | 2021-10-10 | Lost |
| 974 | 946 | 54% | 2020-11-07 | Lost |
| 1083 | 997 | 62% | 2020-06-22 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1010 | 53% | 2020-06-15 | Won |
| 917 | 1011 | 37% | 2020-04-07 | Lost |
| 919 | 1098 | 26% | 2019-11-26 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1151 | 49% | 2019-10-09 | Won |
| 933 | 958 | 46% | 2019-08-18 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1212 | 31% | 2019-05-06 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1105 | 46% | 2019-03-29 | Lost |
| 1122 | 958 | 72% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 1122 | 958 | 72% | 2019-02-02 | Won |
| 904 | 949 | 44% | 2018-06-05 | Won |
| 919 | 897 | 53% | 2017-10-22 | Lost |
| 1003 | 1002 | 50% | 2017-10-04 | Won |
| 1172 | 1173 | 50% | 2017-07-17 | Won |
| 1105 | 1035 | 60% | 2017-06-06 | Won |
| 913 | 1075 | 28% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 907 | 1016 | 35% | 2017-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1010 | 46% | 2017-01-06 | Lost |
| 897 | 906 | 49% | 2016-07-14 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2016-06-14 | Won |
| 1158 | 950 | 77% | 2016-03-17 | Won |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2015-11-05 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1053 | 64% | 2015-06-26 | Won |
| 1040 | 1012 | 54% | 2014-06-08 | Won |
| 1080 | 693 | 90% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 987 | 968 | 53% | 2013-02-02 | Lost |
| 948 | 1008 | 41% | 2013-01-31 | Lost |
| 987 | 983 | 51% | 2013-01-08 | Won |
| 1033 | 1117 | 38% | 2012-11-06 | Lost |
| 1049 | 1244 | 25% | 2012-10-26 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1133 | 40% | 2012-10-02 | Lost |
| 1011 | 866 | 70% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 997 | 1083 | 38% | 2009-04-15 | Lost |
| 1054 | 933 | 67% | 2008-08-03 | Won |
| 1228 | 1006 | 78% | 2007-08-27 | Won |
| 1080 | 1053 | 54% | 2006-05-04 | Won |
| 1033 | 1204 | 27% | 2005-10-12 | Won |
| 1048 | 1132 | 38% | 2005-04-13 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1047 | 60% | 2005-03-31 | Won |
| 1095 | 1112 | 48% | 2005-03-22 | Lost |
| 1048 | 919 | 68% | 2005-03-11 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1095 | 55% | 2005-03-03 | Won |
| 1095 | 1100 | 49% | 2003-02-04 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1050 | 56% | 2002-08-03 | Won |
| 900 | 1151 | 19% | 2001-12-14 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1002 | 56% | 1998-04-26 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1095 | 51% | 1997-10-30 | Won |
| 1174 | 981 | 75% | 1996-04-18 | Won |
| 1110 | 1204 | 37% | 1994-11-26 | Lost |
| 952 | 1013 | 41% | 1992-12-30 | Lost |
Attacking (31 wins) average ELOs: 1036 vs 1034.6 has a 50.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).