First Matanikau
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (17 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American (USMC)): 23
Defender wins (Japanese): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1015 | 1110 | 37% | 2024-12-06 | Won |
| 1015 | 1198 | 26% | 2024-03-09 | Lost |
| 869 | 913 | 44% | 2024-02-25 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1103 | 43% | 2024-01-08 | Lost |
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2023-08-06 | Won |
| 889 | 1017 | 32% | 2023-05-08 | Won |
| 980 | 1204 | 22% | 2022-12-29 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1204 | 29% | 2022-03-20 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1203 | 33% | 2020-07-28 | Won |
| 1204 | 1050 | 71% | 2018-12-28 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1173 | 50% | 2018-11-14 | Won |
| 1158 | 925 | 79% | 2017-11-17 | Lost |
| 935 | 969 | 45% | 2014-12-07 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2012-10-07 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1021 | 77% | 2006-12-04 | Won |
| 1163 | 1174 | 48% | 2002-11-21 | Won |
| 1164 | 1204 | 44% | 2002-03-18 | Won |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1059.7 vs 1088.8 has a 45.82% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).