Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 173 (25 on the archive and 148 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 83
Defender wins (German): 89
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 955 | 1097 | 31% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1060 | 1022 | 55% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1113 | 1028 | 62% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1210 | 983 | 79% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 948 | 1039 | 37% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1216 | 22% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1131 | 37% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1060 | 53% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1251 | 25% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 909 | 68% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 966 | 1108 | 31% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 906 | 63% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 950 | 1060 | 35% | 2008-05-07 | Lost |
| 1060 | 950 | 65% | 2008-02-27 | Won |
| 1188 | 1033 | 71% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1327 | 1342 | 48% | 2002-08-07 | Lost |
| 1113 | 1059 | 58% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 874 | 1036 | 28% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 1087 | 1060 | 54% | 1998-08-02 | Lost |
| 943 | 969 | 46% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1233 | 24% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1233 | 1013 | 78% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1127 | 987 | 69% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1064 vs 1066.4 has a 49.64% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).