Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 174 (26 on the archive and 148 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 83
Defender wins (German): 90
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 938 | 1011 | 40% | 2026-07-02 | | Lost |
| 949 | 1093 | 30% | 2023-09-10 | | Won |
| 1046 | 1000 | 57% | 2023-04-24 | | Won |
| 1159 | 1028 | 68% | 2021-04-08 | | Won |
| 1292 | 1089 | 76% | 2020-12-06 | | Won |
| 948 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-03-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1227 | 21% | 2017-07-30 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2017-06-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1088 | 38% | 2016-11-06 | | Lost |
| 1079 | 1046 | 55% | 2016-04-12 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1219 | 22% | 2016-02-03 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 941 | 58% | 2012-07-01 | | Lost |
| 957 | 1121 | 28% | 2011-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2011-01-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 917 | 62% | 2009-08-27 | | Won |
| 950 | 1074 | 33% | 2008-05-07 | | Lost |
| 1074 | 950 | 67% | 2008-02-27 | | Won |
| 1189 | 1000 | 75% | 2007-11-11 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1344 | 12% | 2002-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1060 | 64% | 2002-06-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1032 | 45% | 2000-10-01 | | Won |
| 1087 | 1074 | 52% | 1998-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1033 | 45% | 1998-06-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 1997-10-19 | | Won |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 1997-10-18 | | Won |
| 1196 | 1000 | 76% | 1997-04-19 | | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1053.2 vs 1063.2 has a 48.56% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).