Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (Russian): 12
Defender wins (German): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1039 | 1005 | 55% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1085 | 1029 | 58% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1248 | 1019 | 79% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1257 | 949 | 85% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 943 | 1005 | 41% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1236 | 20% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1132 | 32% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1085 | 49% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1310 | 18% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 929 | 65% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 994 | 1154 | 28% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1111 | 1083 | 54% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 919 | 61% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 1141 | 1033 | 65% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1248 | 1095 | 71% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 869 | 1036 | 28% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 940 | 1089 | 30% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1228 | 25% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1228 | 1013 | 78% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1136 | 984 | 71% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1072.8 vs 1067.7 has a 50.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).