Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Russian): 13
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 999 | 1045 | 43% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1087 | 1030 | 58% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1234 | 1018 | 78% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1192 | 967 | 79% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 946 | 1010 | 41% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1215 | 22% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1143 | 32% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1087 | 49% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1313 | 18% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 977 | 59% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 990 | 1162 | 27% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1000 | 920 | 61% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 950 | 1079 | 32% | 2008-05-07 | Lost |
| 1079 | 950 | 68% | 2008-02-27 | Won |
| 1146 | 1033 | 66% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1234 | 1095 | 69% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 867 | 1037 | 27% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1079 | 48% | 1998-08-02 | Lost |
| 942 | 1074 | 32% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1228 | 25% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1228 | 1013 | 78% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1115 | 984 | 68% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1062.1 vs 1067.8 has a 49.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).