Directive Number Three
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Russian): 13
Defender wins (German): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1039 | 1004 | 55% | 2023-09-10 | Won |
| 1100 | 1030 | 60% | 2023-04-24 | Won |
| 1174 | 1018 | 71% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1264 | 1039 | 79% | 2020-12-06 | Won |
| 946 | 1017 | 40% | 2019-03-14 | Won |
| 995 | 1215 | 22% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1017 | 1153 | 31% | 2017-06-20 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2016-11-06 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1100 | 47% | 2016-04-12 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1333 | 17% | 2016-02-03 | Tied |
| 1037 | 953 | 62% | 2012-07-01 | Lost |
| 974 | 1162 | 25% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2011-01-08 | Won |
| 1001 | 919 | 62% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
| 950 | 1049 | 36% | 2008-05-07 | Lost |
| 1049 | 950 | 64% | 2008-02-27 | Won |
| 1154 | 1033 | 67% | 2007-11-11 | Won |
| 1174 | 1095 | 61% | 2002-06-22 | Won |
| 869 | 1028 | 29% | 2000-10-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1049 | 53% | 1998-08-02 | Lost |
| 942 | 1051 | 35% | 1998-06-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1228 | 25% | 1997-10-19 | Won |
| 1228 | 1013 | 78% | 1997-10-18 | Won |
| 1127 | 985 | 69% | 1997-04-19 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1061.9 vs 1066.3 has a 49.36% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).