A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 130 (16 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 57
Defender wins (Russian): 72
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 1112 | 47% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1005 | 1038 | 45% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 991 | 946 | 56% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 866 | 1065 | 24% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1065 | 1032 | 55% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1027 | 947 | 61% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 973 | 991 | 47% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 889 | 1152 | 18% | 2007-09-20 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1035 | 60% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 953 | 1055 | 36% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1127 | 1247 | 33% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1189 | 41% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1121 | 51% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1028 | 56% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1033.1 vs 1064.3 has a 45.53% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).