A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 132 (18 on the archive and 115 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 58
Defender wins (Russian): 74
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2024-11-02 | | Won |
| 1052 | 987 | 59% | 2023-09-29 | A | Lost |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2023-04-15 | | Lost |
| 841 | 1080 | 20% | 2023-02-28 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1032 | 66% | 2020-06-29 | | Won |
| 1028 | 1156 | 32% | 2019-07-05 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2016-03-22 | | Lost |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2011-04-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2007-09-20 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2007-05-28 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1263 | 18% | 2004-07-22 | | Lost |
| 943 | 1000 | 42% | 2003-08-16 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1317 | 22% | 2003-01-09 | | Lost |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2003-01-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 1999-07-29 | | Lost |
| 1100 | 1000 | 64% | 1997-01-22 | | Lost |
| 1120 | 1120 | 50% | 1996-12-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1078 | 39% | 1988-01-01 | | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1024.9 vs 1072.1 has a 43.25% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).