A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 130 (16 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 57
Defender wins (Russian): 72
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1083 | 1112 | 46% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 1045 | 999 | 57% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 961 | 946 | 52% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 873 | 1044 | 27% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1015 | 56% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1027 | 965 | 59% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 974 | 961 | 52% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 891 | 1152 | 18% | 2007-09-20 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1034 | 60% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 977 | 1055 | 39% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1115 | 1247 | 32% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1034 | 982 | 57% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1124 | 1196 | 40% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1115 | 1154 | 44% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1036 | 55% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1033.6 vs 1061.6 has a 45.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).