A Surprise Encounter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 131 (17 on the archive and 114 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Finnish): 58
Defender wins (Russian): 72
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Finnish): 0
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1066 | 1112 | 43% | 2024-11-02 | Won |
| 996 | 1047 | 43% | 2023-09-29 | Lost |
| 984 | 948 | 55% | 2023-04-15 | Lost |
| 889 | 1067 | 26% | 2023-02-28 | Lost |
| 1100 | 1031 | 60% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1026 | 936 | 63% | 2019-07-05 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2016-03-22 | Lost |
| 973 | 984 | 48% | 2011-04-10 | Lost |
| 890 | 1140 | 19% | 2007-09-20 | Lost |
| 1103 | 1035 | 60% | 2007-05-28 | Lost |
| 962 | 1055 | 37% | 2003-08-16 | Won |
| 1174 | 1266 | 37% | 2003-01-09 | Lost |
| 1035 | 982 | 58% | 2003-01-06 | Lost |
| 1222 | 1182 | 56% | 1999-07-29 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1163 | 52% | 1997-01-22 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1010 | 50% | 1996-12-18 | Won |
| 1068 | 1031 | 55% | 1988-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1044.7 vs 1063.4 has a 47.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).