The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (American): 13
Defender wins (Italian): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1009 | 974 | 55% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1203 | 1253 | 43% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1038 | 1005 | 55% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 1043 | 948 | 63% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1012 | 49% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1134 | 1222 | 38% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 934 | 1066 | 32% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1071 | 958 | 66% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 985 | 1232 | 19% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1190 | 983 | 77% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1059 | 941 | 66% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 962 | 74% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 999 | 1117 | 34% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1344 | 1071 | 83% | 2005-06-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1189 | 35% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 924 | 968 | 44% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1022 | 86% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 1031 | 1018 | 52% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1087 | 47% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1062 | 51% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1071.1 vs 1062.3 has a 51.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).