The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (American): 13
Defender wins (Italian): 10
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1009 | 974 | 55% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1220 | 1253 | 45% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1099 | 961 | 69% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 1170 | 948 | 78% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 965 | 988 | 47% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1134 | 1223 | 37% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 985 | 1001 | 48% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1071 | 959 | 66% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1223 | 20% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1228 | 983 | 80% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1022 | 941 | 61% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 909 | 79% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 948 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 1000 | 1128 | 32% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1343 | 1071 | 83% | 2005-06-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1190 | 35% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 924 | 1015 | 37% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1021 | 86% | 2000-02-24 | Won |
| 1033 | 1018 | 52% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1087 | 46% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1062 | 50% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1080.7 vs 1056.7 has a 53.45% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).