The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 22
Attacker wins (American): 12
Defender wins (Italian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 974 | 51% | 2025-12-06 | Won |
| 1193 | 1268 | 39% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1015 | 52% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 1014 | 948 | 59% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 931 | 958 | 46% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1110 | 1223 | 34% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 941 | 1063 | 33% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1067 | 958 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1340 | 12% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1144 | 983 | 72% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1073 | 918 | 71% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 954 | 75% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 999 | 1078 | 39% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1079 | 1203 | 33% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 739 | 1151 | 9% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 920 | 1020 | 36% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1091 | 39% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1067 | 50% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1062 | 51% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1036.5 vs 1070 has a 45.21% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).