The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 18
Attacker wins (American): 9
Defender wins (Italian): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1264 | 1282 | 47% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1224 | 1224 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1021 | 1023 | 50% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 959 | 943 | 52% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 903 | 903 | 50% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1121 | 1121 | 50% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 949 | 1044 | 37% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1066 | 958 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1310 | 13% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1141 | 983 | 71% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1140 | 879 | 82% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 929 | 78% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 1000 | 1058 | 42% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 920 | 920 | 50% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1121 | 38% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1053.7 vs 1041.6 has a 51.74% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).