The Guns of Naro
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 21
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1215 | 1186 | 54% | 2024-02-22 | Won |
| 1228 | 1228 | 50% | 2024-02-09 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1030 | 48% | 2022-12-01 | Lost |
| 805 | 949 | 30% | 2022-07-10 | Lost |
| 973 | 950 | 53% | 2022-01-17 | Won |
| 1111 | 1125 | 48% | 2021-03-14 | Won |
| 975 | 1016 | 44% | 2021-02-24 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost |
| 1067 | 958 | 65% | 2018-06-16 | Won |
| 986 | 1333 | 12% | 2017-05-05 | Lost |
| 1143 | 983 | 72% | 2015-04-18 | Won |
| 1050 | 922 | 68% | 2014-10-08 | Won |
| 1144 | 962 | 74% | 2014-07-06 | Won |
| 991 | 949 | 56% | 2013-12-28 | Tied |
| 999 | 1055 | 42% | 2012-04-16 | Won |
| 1089 | 1014 | 61% | 2003-08-08 | Won |
| 713 | 1152 | 7% | 2000-04-26 | Won |
| 920 | 960 | 44% | 2000-04-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 1090 | 38% | 2000-01-01 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1067 | 50% | 1999-05-25 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1062 | 51% | 1999-04-14 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1030.9 vs 1051.4 has a 47.05% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).