The Weigh In
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 52 (9 on the archive and 43 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 15
Defender wins (Polish): 36
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1117 | 1117 | 50% | 2025-10-22 | Lost |
| 991 | 1142 | 30% | 2024-03-09 | Tied |
| 948 | 1021 | 40% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1144 | 939 | 76% | 2016-09-17 | Won |
| 987 | 1227 | 20% | 2003-04-23 | Lost |
| 1101 | 994 | 65% | 2000-11-15 | Lost |
| 1031 | 994 | 55% | 2000-10-22 | Lost |
| 777 | 1141 | 11% | 2000-04-21 | Lost |
| 993 | 1077 | 38% | 2000-01-01 | Won |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1009.9 vs 1072.4 has a 41.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).