3rd RTR in the Rain
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 438 (87 on the archive and 351 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (British): 213
Defender wins (German): 224
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|---|---|---|---|
1000 | 879 | 67% | 2023-11-29 | Won |
928 | 917 | 52% | 2023-07-21 | Won |
953 | 1024 | 40% | 2023-06-08 | Won |
1164 | 982 | 74% | 2023-05-28 | Won |
938 | 927 | 52% | 2023-03-04 | Won |
983 | 983 | 50% | 2023-02-28 | Won |
1012 | 1009 | 50% | 2022-11-30 | Won |
980 | 976 | 51% | 2022-10-29 | Lost |
1001 | 1011 | 49% | 2022-10-29 | Lost |
954 | 954 | 50% | 2022-05-22 | Won |
966 | 994 | 46% | 2022-04-19 | Lost |
994 | 966 | 54% | 2022-04-13 | Won |
1007 | 1021 | 48% | 2021-04-04 | Lost |
938 | 930 | 51% | 2021-02-13 | Lost |
1137 | 1133 | 51% | 2020-08-04 | Won |
1026 | 1058 | 45% | 2020-06-26 | Lost |
1013 | 988 | 54% | 2020-06-26 | Won |
1026 | 1017 | 51% | 2020-06-12 | Won |
1010 | 1160 | 30% | 2020-04-28 | Lost |
911 | 1058 | 30% | 2020-04-23 | Lost |
1002 | 998 | 51% | 2020-04-15 | Won |
1108 | 1135 | 46% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
1062 | 1002 | 59% | 2020-04-04 | Lost |
1013 | 1008 | 51% | 2020-04-02 | Lost |
1008 | 1013 | 49% | 2020-02-22 | Won |
924 | 1204 | 17% | 2020-02-02 | Lost |
989 | 1009 | 47% | 2019-05-31 | Won |
989 | 1009 | 47% | 2019-05-31 | Won |
994 | 1108 | 34% | 2018-05-17 | Won |
1142 | 967 | 73% | 2018-01-26 | Won |
983 | 1095 | 34% | 2017-11-23 | Lost |
1204 | 1144 | 59% | 2017-03-05 | Lost |
1068 | 1204 | 31% | 2016-06-14 | Lost |
1204 | 1144 | 59% | 2015-06-18 | Lost |
1039 | 1307 | 18% | 2015-05-09 | Lost |
1141 | 1095 | 57% | 2015-05-05 | Lost |
1162 | 986 | 73% | 2015-02-15 | Lost |
976 | 1032 | 42% | 2014-11-08 | Won |
1144 | 1204 | 41% | 2014-11-06 | Won |
1050 | 1261 | 23% | 2014-10-11 | Lost |
992 | 1055 | 41% | 2014-07-13 | Lost |
918 | 1036 | 34% | 2014-05-20 | Lost |
918 | 1036 | 34% | 2014-05-10 | Lost |
1098 | 1176 | 39% | 2013-10-10 | Won |
1056 | 1060 | 49% | 2013-09-03 | Won |
1040 | 942 | 64% | 2013-03-02 | Won |
1037 | 1064 | 46% | 2012-12-08 | Won |
1261 | 1087 | 73% | 2012-10-04 | Lost |
991 | 937 | 58% | 2012-07-18 | Won |
1204 | 1144 | 59% | 2012-07-07 | Tied |
989 | 975 | 52% | 2012-04-29 | Won |
1073 | 984 | 63% | 2011-10-05 | Lost |
1144 | 1204 | 41% | 2011-09-11 | Lost |
1144 | 1037 | 65% | 2011-09-11 | Lost |
1063 | 1026 | 55% | 2011-03-14 | Lost |
1093 | 1125 | 45% | 2011-01-05 | Lost |
1108 | 1169 | 41% | 2010-10-07 | Lost |
1019 | 1058 | 44% | 2010-03-14 | Won |
1147 | 994 | 71% | 2010-03-14 | Lost |
864 | 1019 | 29% | 2010-03-12 | Won |
1062 | 1019 | 56% | 2010-03-11 | Won |
1019 | 851 | 72% | 2010-02-11 | Won |
1307 | 1088 | 78% | 2009-09-13 | Lost |
1360 | 983 | 90% | 2009-09-13 | Won |
993 | 1307 | 14% | 2009-08-27 | Won |
1164 | 1360 | 24% | 2009-05-17 | Lost |
1091 | 984 | 65% | 2009-05-10 | Won |
1073 | 985 | 62% | 2009-04-01 | Won |
1095 | 1133 | 45% | 2009-03-07 | Won |
1058 | 1093 | 45% | 2009-01-02 | Lost |
1020 | 1062 | 44% | 2008-10-24 | Won |
1127 | 1062 | 59% | 2008-09-13 | Won |
974 | 1105 | 32% | 2008-04-26 | Lost |
998 | 958 | 56% | 2007-07-12 | Won |
1016 | 1015 | 50% | 2007-05-16 | Won |
1289 | 1030 | 82% | 2007-01-02 | Lost |
1098 | 1360 | 18% | 2006-10-13 | Lost |
1149 | 992 | 71% | 2006-01-25 | Won |
1097 | 947 | 70% | 2004-12-11 | Won |
850 | 992 | 31% | 2004-11-08 | Won |
1120 | 1055 | 59% | 2004-09-21 | Lost |
901 | 987 | 38% | 2004-02-04 | Won |
980 | 1142 | 28% | 2001-12-19 | Lost |
994 | 926 | 60% | 2001-10-27 | Lost |
1097 | 1097 | 50% | 2001-09-19 | Lost |
1097 | 1097 | 50% | 2001-09-18 | Won |
890 | 1097 | 23% | 2001-06-23 | Lost |
Attacking (44 wins) average ELOs: 1048.5 vs 1054.8 has a 49.1% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).