Audacity!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 187 (26 on the archive and 161 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 88
Defender wins (German ): 99
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1081 | 1081 | 50% | 2026-03-23 | Won |
| 950 | 1080 | 32% | 2023-06-25 | Lost |
| 986 | 999 | 48% | 2023-05-17 | Won |
| 1000 | 968 | 55% | 2023-04-14 | Lost |
| 1077 | 967 | 65% | 2021-10-24 | Lost |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2021-05-23 | Lost |
| 1133 | 991 | 69% | 2021-04-25 | Won |
| 890 | 904 | 48% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 1121 | 947 | 73% | 2021-03-03 | Lost |
| 1128 | 985 | 69% | 2021-02-23 | Lost |
| 974 | 1009 | 45% | 2019-09-30 | Lost |
| 1133 | 998 | 69% | 2018-12-11 | Won |
| 1159 | 1097 | 59% | 2016-10-08 | Lost |
| 919 | 1170 | 19% | 2016-08-01 | Won |
| 958 | 1220 | 18% | 2012-10-27 | Lost |
| 1135 | 931 | 76% | 2012-02-10 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1031 | 54% | 2010-01-23 | Won |
| 1035 | 1137 | 36% | 2007-03-07 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1226 | 55% | 2004-03-21 | Won |
| 1044 | 1120 | 39% | 2002-12-31 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2002-10-12 | Won |
| 1141 | 1118 | 53% | 2002-10-10 | Won |
| 1015 | 1014 | 50% | 2001-10-27 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2001-06-28 | Won |
| 992 | 1101 | 35% | 2001-06-23 | Lost |
| 753 | 1141 | 10% | 2001-05-29 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1038.9 vs 1050.3 has a 48.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).