Audacity!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 187 (26 on the archive and 161 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 88
Defender wins (German ): 99
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1104 | 1104 | 50% | 2026-03-23 | Won |
| 950 | 1080 | 32% | 2023-06-25 | Lost |
| 950 | 986 | 45% | 2023-05-17 | Won |
| 1000 | 986 | 52% | 2023-04-14 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1008 | 54% | 2021-10-24 | Lost |
| 928 | 939 | 48% | 2021-05-23 | Lost |
| 1041 | 992 | 57% | 2021-04-25 | Won |
| 910 | 909 | 50% | 2021-03-04 | Lost |
| 1126 | 947 | 74% | 2021-03-03 | Lost |
| 1128 | 972 | 71% | 2021-02-23 | Lost |
| 1046 | 977 | 60% | 2019-09-30 | Lost |
| 1133 | 961 | 73% | 2018-12-11 | Won |
| 1109 | 1070 | 56% | 2016-10-08 | Lost |
| 919 | 1076 | 29% | 2016-08-01 | Won |
| 945 | 1220 | 17% | 2012-10-27 | Lost |
| 1146 | 931 | 78% | 2012-02-10 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1031 | 54% | 2010-01-23 | Won |
| 1035 | 1137 | 36% | 2007-03-07 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1226 | 55% | 2004-03-21 | Won |
| 1044 | 1120 | 39% | 2002-12-31 | Won |
| 1026 | 1026 | 50% | 2002-10-12 | Won |
| 1140 | 972 | 72% | 2002-10-10 | Won |
| 999 | 1014 | 48% | 2001-10-27 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2001-06-28 | Won |
| 992 | 1101 | 35% | 2001-06-23 | Lost |
| 753 | 1140 | 10% | 2001-05-29 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1033.5 vs 1039.5 has a 49.15% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).