Audacity!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 187 (26 on the archive and 161 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 88
Defender wins (German ): 99
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1120 | 1120 | 50% | 2026-03-23 | | Won |
| 950 | 1080 | 32% | 2023-06-25 | | Lost |
| 935 | 996 | 41% | 2023-05-17 | | Won |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2023-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1052 | 987 | 59% | 2021-10-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 943 | 58% | 2021-05-23 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 997 | 50% | 2021-04-25 | | Won |
| 943 | 903 | 56% | 2021-03-04 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 947 | 74% | 2021-03-03 | | Lost |
| 1128 | 972 | 71% | 2021-02-23 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 987 | 60% | 2019-09-30 | | Lost |
| 1134 | 962 | 73% | 2018-12-11 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1056 | 56% | 2016-10-08 | | Lost |
| 919 | 1140 | 22% | 2016-08-01 | | Won |
| 945 | 1220 | 17% | 2012-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1147 | 1000 | 70% | 2012-02-10 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2010-01-23 | | Won |
| 1035 | 1000 | 55% | 2007-03-07 | | Lost |
| 1263 | 1000 | 82% | 2004-03-21 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1120 | 33% | 2002-12-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2002-10-12 | | Won |
| 1141 | 1000 | 69% | 2002-10-10 | | Won |
| 1014 | 1000 | 52% | 2001-10-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2001-06-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2001-06-23 | | Lost |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2001-05-29 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1031.9 vs 1029.9 has a 50.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).