Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 40
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (American): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 1260 | 17% | 2025-01-08 | Lost |
| 986 | 976 | 51% | 2024-11-25 | Lost |
| 1108 | 965 | 69% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 850 | 989 | 31% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2022-11-28 | Won |
| 1253 | 1307 | 42% | 2021-07-25 | Lost |
| 780 | 1029 | 19% | 2020-10-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 983 | 80% | 2020-09-08 | Won |
| 1079 | 950 | 68% | 2020-08-28 | Won |
| 980 | 1144 | 28% | 2019-05-08 | Lost |
| 1026 | 959 | 60% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 1132 | 1072 | 59% | 2018-03-03 | Won |
| 972 | 1216 | 20% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 972 | 1216 | 20% | 2018-02-11 | Lost |
| 1220 | 1198 | 53% | 2014-01-18 | Won |
| 1125 | 1093 | 55% | 2012-02-25 | Won |
| 1081 | 1096 | 48% | 2011-11-11 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1169 | 37% | 2011-09-15 | Won |
| 959 | 1081 | 33% | 2011-08-01 | Lost |
| 1075 | 918 | 71% | 2010-03-13 | Won |
| 1105 | 1016 | 63% | 2009-08-23 | Won |
| 1105 | 1137 | 45% | 2009-04-14 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1036 | 48% | 2008-01-27 | Won |
| 1159 | 1130 | 54% | 2008-01-27 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1252 | 32% | 2007-09-07 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1423 | 15% | 2007-08-07 | Lost |
| 1023 | 992 | 54% | 2006-10-14 | Lost |
| 1175 | 1260 | 38% | 2006-06-23 | Lost |
| 1068 | 980 | 62% | 2006-06-03 | Won |
| 987 | 1260 | 17% | 2005-10-23 | Won |
| 831 | 1177 | 12% | 2003-03-07 | Won |
| 1068 | 925 | 69% | 2002-05-03 | Won |
| 1045 | 1020 | 54% | 2002-01-01 | Lost |
| 1089 | 1099 | 49% | 2001-12-08 | Won |
| 733 | 1140 | 9% | 2001-08-10 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2001-08-08 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2001-08-07 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1008 | 53% | | Won |
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | | Lost |
| 1032 | 962 | 60% | | Won |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1045.4 vs 1091.7 has a 43.39% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).