Bad Luck
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 225 (47 on the archive and 178 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 110
Defender wins (American): 115
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2026-08-20 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1192 | 29% | 2025-01-08 | | Lost |
| 977 | 992 | 48% | 2024-11-25 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2023-02-27 | | Lost |
| 851 | 1000 | 30% | 2023-02-27 | | Lost |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2022-11-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1315 | 14% | 2021-07-25 | | Lost |
| 780 | 1031 | 19% | 2020-10-28 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 977 | 81% | 2020-09-08 | | Won |
| 1085 | 950 | 69% | 2020-08-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2019-05-08 | | Lost |
| 999 | 1021 | 47% | 2018-03-03 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1044 | 63% | 2018-03-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1222 | 22% | 2018-02-11 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1222 | 22% | 2018-02-11 | | Lost |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2014-01-18 | | Won |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2012-02-25 | | Won |
| 1126 | 1097 | 54% | 2011-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1073 | 1000 | 60% | 2011-09-15 | | Won |
| 967 | 1126 | 29% | 2011-08-01 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 927 | 72% | 2010-03-13 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2009-08-23 | | Won |
| 1167 | 1136 | 54% | 2009-04-14 | | Lost |
| 1151 | 1078 | 60% | 2008-03-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1035 | 45% | 2008-01-27 | | Won |
| 1100 | 1122 | 47% | 2008-01-27 | | Lost |
| 1150 | 1219 | 40% | 2007-09-07 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1151 | 30% | 2007-09-07 | | Lost |
| 1155 | 1435 | 17% | 2007-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 992 | 72% | 2006-10-14 | | Lost |
| 1175 | 1192 | 48% | 2006-06-23 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2006-06-03 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1343 | 12% | 2006-04-02 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1192 | 25% | 2005-10-23 | | Won |
| 832 | 1157 | 13% | 2003-03-07 | | Won |
| 1074 | 925 | 70% | 2002-05-03 | | Won |
| 1343 | 1000 | 88% | 2002-04-27 | | Won |
| 951 | 1343 | 9% | 2002-02-02 | | Lost |
| 1343 | 1009 | 87% | 2002-01-31 | | Lost |
| 1078 | 1000 | 61% | 2002-01-01 | | Lost |
| 1037 | 1000 | 55% | 2001-12-08 | | Won |
| 767 | 1141 | 10% | 2001-08-10 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2001-08-08 | | Lost |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2001-08-07 | | Lost |
| 1086 | 1000 | 62% | | | Won |
| 1000 | 1086 | 38% | | | Lost |
| 1086 | 944 | 69% | | | Won |
Attacking (21 wins) average ELOs: 1052.5 vs 1080.8 has a 45.94% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).