The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 45
Attacker wins (Russian): 18
Defender wins (German): 26
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 936 | 726 | 77% | 2025-07-13 | Won |
| 960 | 1096 | 31% | 2025-06-16 | Lost |
| 950 | 1053 | 36% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 954 | 1198 | 20% | 2023-04-27 | Won |
| 1131 | 904 | 79% | 2022-11-01 | Lost |
| 964 | 1029 | 41% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
| 985 | 985 | 50% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
| 953 | 968 | 48% | 2022-03-06 | Won |
| 892 | 971 | 39% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1020 | 1053 | 45% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1130 | 1254 | 33% | 2021-03-25 | Won |
| 1025 | 903 | 67% | 2020-11-08 | Lost |
| 1158 | 1009 | 70% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1109 | 979 | 68% | 2019-03-08 | Lost |
| 1036 | 947 | 63% | 2018-11-17 | Won |
| 947 | 946 | 50% | 2018-08-14 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1036 | 64% | 2018-07-23 | Lost |
| 875 | 846 | 54% | 2017-10-17 | Lost |
| 931 | 1020 | 37% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1028 | 50% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1088 | 1074 | 52% | 2017-01-05 | Tied |
| 927 | 1207 | 17% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
| 1038 | 1005 | 55% | 2016-02-22 | Lost |
| 947 | 1131 | 26% | 2014-09-07 | Lost |
| 1131 | 947 | 74% | 2014-08-22 | Won |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2013-08-18 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2013-06-28 | Lost |
| 900 | 1079 | 26% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2012-11-18 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1094 | 58% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 1152 | 941 | 77% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 976 | 1162 | 26% | 2011-09-25 | Lost |
| 1114 | 1162 | 43% | 2011-09-12 | Won |
| 1162 | 960 | 76% | 2011-09-05 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1183 | 46% | 2011-07-08 | Won |
| 988 | 1065 | 39% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 1191 | 20% | 2009-08-30 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1041 | 55% | 2008-04-13 | Won |
| 1333 | 1416 | 38% | 2006-09-12 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1041 | 72% | 2006-05-26 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
| 1014 | 1028 | 48% | 2004-03-01 | Won |
| 1067 | 1063 | 51% | 2003-08-29 | Won |
| 1065 | 1044 | 53% | 1998-04-28 | Lost |
| 930 | 1189 | 18% | 1994-07-15 | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1036.6 vs 1046.1 has a 48.63% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).