The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 46
Attacker wins (Russian): 18
Defender wins (German): 27
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 991 | 988 | 50% | 2025-10-22 | Lost |
| 936 | 756 | 74% | 2025-07-13 | Won |
| 938 | 1134 | 24% | 2025-06-16 | Lost |
| 950 | 1053 | 36% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
| 975 | 1079 | 35% | 2023-04-27 | Won |
| 1144 | 904 | 80% | 2022-11-01 | Lost |
| 964 | 1049 | 38% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
| 985 | 985 | 50% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
| 949 | 949 | 50% | 2022-03-06 | Won |
| 892 | 971 | 39% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
| 1012 | 1053 | 44% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
| 1122 | 1276 | 29% | 2021-03-25 | Won |
| 972 | 902 | 60% | 2020-11-08 | Lost |
| 1158 | 995 | 72% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
| 1110 | 979 | 68% | 2019-03-08 | Lost |
| 995 | 1020 | 46% | 2018-11-17 | Won |
| 991 | 948 | 56% | 2018-08-14 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1037 | 64% | 2018-07-23 | Lost |
| 875 | 846 | 54% | 2017-10-17 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
| 1045 | 1028 | 52% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2017-01-05 | Tied |
| 927 | 1211 | 16% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
| 986 | 1057 | 40% | 2016-02-22 | Lost |
| 991 | 1144 | 29% | 2014-09-07 | Lost |
| 1144 | 991 | 71% | 2014-08-22 | Won |
| 1117 | 1081 | 55% | 2013-08-18 | Won |
| 1009 | 1009 | 50% | 2013-06-28 | Lost |
| 900 | 1043 | 31% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
| 982 | 982 | 50% | 2012-11-18 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1073 | 60% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 1140 | 1169 | 46% | 2012-11-01 | Won |
| 980 | 1101 | 33% | 2011-09-25 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1101 | 58% | 2011-09-12 | Won |
| 1101 | 960 | 69% | 2011-09-05 | Lost |
| 1140 | 1185 | 44% | 2011-07-08 | Won |
| 988 | 1098 | 35% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
| 951 | 1192 | 20% | 2009-08-30 | Lost |
| 1094 | 991 | 64% | 2008-04-13 | Won |
| 1252 | 1423 | 27% | 2006-09-12 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1041 | 72% | 2006-05-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1032 | 54% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1045 | 45% | 2004-03-01 | Won |
| 1086 | 1068 | 53% | 2003-08-29 | Won |
| 1081 | 1044 | 55% | 1998-04-28 | Lost |
| 930 | 1177 | 19% | 1994-07-15 | Lost |
Attacking (18 wins) average ELOs: 1034.2 vs 1049 has a 47.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).