The Dead of Winter
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 225 (36 on the archive and 189 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 98
Defender wins (German): 126
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
---|
1029 | 1040 | 48% | 2024-04-07 | Lost |
971 | 1109 | 31% | 2023-04-27 | Won |
1144 | 914 | 79% | 2022-11-01 | Lost |
964 | 1012 | 43% | 2022-08-20 | Lost |
1016 | 1016 | 50% | 2022-08-15 | Lost |
970 | 984 | 48% | 2022-03-06 | Won |
892 | 919 | 46% | 2022-01-10 | Won |
1024 | 1175 | 30% | 2021-09-26 | Lost |
1072 | 1150 | 39% | 2021-03-25 | Won |
942 | 899 | 56% | 2020-11-08 | Lost |
1158 | 1012 | 70% | 2020-06-29 | Won |
1108 | 1187 | 39% | 2019-03-08 | Lost |
1027 | 1010 | 52% | 2018-11-17 | Won |
1204 | 924 | 83% | 2018-08-14 | Lost |
881 | 849 | 55% | 2017-10-17 | Lost |
1013 | 1020 | 49% | 2017-02-22 | Lost |
1063 | 1030 | 55% | 2017-02-10 | Won |
1008 | 1008 | 50% | 2017-01-05 | Tied |
931 | 940 | 49% | 2016-11-28 | Won |
1026 | 993 | 55% | 2016-02-22 | Lost |
1204 | 1144 | 59% | 2014-09-07 | Lost |
1144 | 1204 | 41% | 2014-08-22 | Won |
1095 | 1080 | 52% | 2013-08-18 | Won |
1010 | 1009 | 50% | 2013-06-28 | Lost |
900 | 1055 | 29% | 2013-03-24 | Lost |
982 | 982 | 50% | 2012-11-18 | Lost |
838 | 1095 | 19% | 2011-09-25 | Lost |
816 | 1095 | 17% | 2011-09-12 | Won |
1095 | 958 | 69% | 2011-09-05 | Lost |
989 | 989 | 50% | 2009-09-19 | Lost |
952 | 958 | 49% | 2009-08-30 | Lost |
1062 | 1127 | 41% | 2008-04-13 | Won |
1307 | 1360 | 42% | 2006-09-12 | Lost |
1204 | 1037 | 72% | 2006-05-26 | Lost |
1055 | 1029 | 54% | 2005-01-07 | Lost |
980 | 1063 | 38% | 2004-03-01 | Won |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1029.9 vs 1038.2 has a 48.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).