Abandon Ship!
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (31 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 32
Defender wins (American): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 972 | 915 | 58% | 2026-06-20 | Won |
| 952 | 952 | 50% | 2024-12-06 | Lost |
| 919 | 971 | 43% | 2023-07-18 | Lost |
| 933 | 940 | 49% | 2023-03-04 | Lost |
| 1053 | 1051 | 50% | 2023-03-04 | Won |
| 944 | 1051 | 35% | 2023-02-06 | Lost |
| 1225 | 940 | 84% | 2022-12-29 | Lost |
| 1172 | 1172 | 50% | 2022-09-07 | Lost |
| 841 | 1038 | 24% | 2022-08-24 | Won |
| 1152 | 1180 | 46% | 2022-02-26 | Won |
| 1080 | 913 | 72% | 2021-08-21 | Won |
| 1060 | 949 | 65% | 2021-07-17 | Lost |
| 977 | 1009 | 45% | 2020-08-04 | Won |
| 1140 | 1030 | 65% | 2019-03-09 | Won |
| 1135 | 1071 | 59% | 2017-04-27 | Won |
| 969 | 898 | 60% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 997 | 1050 | 42% | 2017-03-31 | Won |
| 997 | 1050 | 42% | 2017-01-06 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2015-12-06 | Lost |
| 1076 | 1179 | 36% | 2015-06-26 | Won |
| 972 | 1000 | 46% | 2015-04-17 | Lost |
| 1126 | 965 | 72% | 2014-11-27 | Won |
| 1126 | 1066 | 59% | 2014-11-14 | Tied |
| 1140 | 777 | 89% | 2014-06-11 | Won |
| 1007 | 1059 | 43% | 2013-05-01 | Lost |
| 966 | 1030 | 41% | 2011-07-09 | Lost |
| 1434 | 1064 | 89% | 2011-06-04 | Won |
| 1434 | 1171 | 82% | 2011-03-20 | Lost |
| 1077 | 1039 | 55% | 2010-11-01 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1100 | 72% | 1999-05-01 | Won |
| 1084 | 943 | 69% | 1998-10-09 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1074.5 vs 1021.3 has a 57.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).