War of the Rats
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 247 (250 on the archive and 1 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 122
Defender wins (Russian): 122
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 4
Attacker wins (German): 3
Defender wins (Russian): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2026-07-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2026-06-25 | Won | |
| 1049 | 1000 | 57% | 2026-06-16 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2026-06-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 938 | 59% | 2026-06-09 | Won | |
| 945 | 1000 | 42% | 2026-06-04 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2026-06-04 | Lost | |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-05-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2026-05-02 | Won | |
| 1203 | 1000 | 76% | 2026-04-18 | Won | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2026-04-06 | Lost | |
| 1069 | 932 | 69% | 2026-03-04 | A | Won |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2026-02-28 | Won | |
| 932 | 1069 | 31% | 2026-02-08 | Lost | |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2026-01-31 | Won | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2026-01-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2025-10-17 | Lost | |
| 1027 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-08-19 | Lost | |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-08-17 | Lost | |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-08-07 | Won | |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2025-03-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2025-02-16 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2024-11-06 | A | Lost |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2024-08-19 | Lost | |
| 1291 | 1000 | 84% | 2024-07-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2024-02-11 | Lost | |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-01-19 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2023-12-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2023-12-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2023-12-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2023-10-25 | A | Won |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2023-08-29 | Lost | |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-04-02 | Won | |
| 1291 | 1000 | 84% | 2023-03-20 | A | Won |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2023-02-18 | Lost | |
| 1064 | 1000 | 59% | 2023-02-10 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1145 | 30% | 2023-01-29 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-01-28 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2023-01-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1064 | 41% | 2023-01-26 | Lost | |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-01-17 | Lost | |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-11-12 | Won | |
| 878 | 1000 | 33% | 2022-10-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2022-10-13 | Won | |
| 1048 | 1048 | 50% | 2022-10-08 | Lost | |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2022-09-25 | Won | |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2022-07-07 | Won | |
| 970 | 1000 | 46% | 2022-06-04 | Won | |
| 1037 | 996 | 56% | 2022-05-25 | Lost | |
| 970 | 1028 | 42% | 2022-04-13 | Lost | |
| 970 | 1036 | 41% | 2022-04-08 | Lost | |
| 1041 | 1000 | 56% | 2022-03-31 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 878 | 67% | 2022-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2022-03-13 | Lost | |
| 1038 | 840 | 76% | 2022-03-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2022-02-26 | Lost | |
| 1049 | 1140 | 37% | 2021-12-21 | Lost | |
| 1049 | 1140 | 37% | 2021-12-20 | Lost | |
| 1187 | 1004 | 74% | 2021-11-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 979 | 53% | 2021-11-18 | Lost | |
| 1037 | 890 | 70% | 2021-10-22 | Won | |
| 888 | 1000 | 34% | 2021-09-07 | Tied | |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2021-09-03 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2021-08-29 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2021-08-21 | Won | |
| 989 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-08-15 | Won | |
| 890 | 1014 | 33% | 2021-08-04 | Won | |
| 1143 | 1000 | 69% | 2021-07-17 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-07-04 | Lost | |
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2021-06-05 | Won | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2021-05-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 964 | 55% | 2021-05-01 | Won | |
| 1004 | 1187 | 26% | 2021-03-29 | Won | |
| 1140 | 1000 | 69% | 2021-03-12 | Won | |
| 984 | 1006 | 47% | 2021-02-25 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2021-02-09 | Won | |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-02-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-01-12 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-01-09 | Lost | |
| 1125 | 979 | 70% | 2020-12-20 | Won | |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-11-15 | Tied | |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2020-10-31 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2020-10-25 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2020-10-17 | Won | |
| 945 | 1000 | 42% | 2020-08-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2020-08-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2020-07-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2020-07-07 | Lost | |
| 1227 | 1000 | 79% | 2020-07-07 | Lost | |
| 1004 | 1000 | 51% | 2020-06-09 | Won | |
| 985 | 1004 | 47% | 2020-05-27 | Lost | |
| 1203 | 1004 | 76% | 2020-05-21 | Won | |
| 1203 | 1004 | 76% | 2020-05-21 | Won | |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2020-05-14 | Won | |
| 944 | 1000 | 42% | 2020-03-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1028 | 46% | 2020-03-17 | Lost | |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-03-10 | Won | |
| 1102 | 1164 | 41% | 2020-03-06 | Won | |
| 1028 | 1003 | 54% | 2020-02-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 912 | 62% | 2020-02-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1030 | 46% | 2020-02-15 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2020-02-09 | Won | |
| 1018 | 1000 | 53% | 2020-01-18 | Won | |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2019-12-08 | Lost | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2019-12-06 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2019-11-17 | Won | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2019-09-23 | Won | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2019-09-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 989 | 52% | 2019-07-12 | Won | |
| 1172 | 954 | 78% | 2019-07-12 | Won | |
| 945 | 1123 | 26% | 2019-05-29 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2019-04-21 | Lost | |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2019-04-14 | Won | |
| 1015 | 1015 | 50% | 2019-02-24 | Lost | |
| 1156 | 1000 | 71% | 2019-02-17 | Won | |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2019-01-22 | Won | |
| 926 | 1000 | 40% | 2018-12-31 | Lost | |
| 1015 | 977 | 55% | 2018-12-25 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2018-12-19 | Won | |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2018-12-04 | Won | |
| 965 | 1082 | 34% | 2018-11-24 | Lost | |
| 888 | 962 | 40% | 2018-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2018-08-16 | Lost | |
| 1095 | 1000 | 63% | 2018-07-22 | Won | |
| 987 | 1000 | 48% | 2018-06-07 | Won | |
| 1054 | 1000 | 58% | 2018-06-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 984 | 52% | 2018-05-04 | Won | |
| 1061 | 1000 | 59% | 2018-03-24 | Won | |
| 983 | 951 | 55% | 2018-01-20 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2018-01-08 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2018-01-07 | Lost | |
| 969 | 1000 | 46% | 2018-01-01 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2017-12-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2017-11-24 | Lost | |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2017-11-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 952 | 57% | 2017-10-13 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2017-09-15 | Won | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2017-09-08 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2017-06-22 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2017-05-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2017-04-23 | Won | |
| 862 | 1000 | 31% | 2017-03-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 888 | 66% | 2017-02-26 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-02-22 | Won | |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-01-29 | Won | |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2017-01-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 888 | 66% | 2017-01-26 | Lost | |
| 1138 | 1000 | 69% | 2016-12-20 | Won | |
| 894 | 1075 | 26% | 2016-11-12 | Lost | |
| 888 | 1000 | 34% | 2016-10-12 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 2016-09-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2016-08-04 | Won | |
| 888 | 1000 | 34% | 2016-07-24 | Tied | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2016-06-22 | Lost | |
| 951 | 885 | 59% | 2016-05-01 | Won | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2016-01-15 | Won | |
| 927 | 1078 | 30% | 2015-11-02 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1095 | 37% | 2015-10-25 | Lost | |
| 927 | 962 | 45% | 2015-10-12 | Lost | |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2015-09-27 | Lost | |
| 953 | 1220 | 18% | 2015-08-26 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2015-08-04 | Won | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-07-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2015-07-23 | Won | |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2015-07-21 | Won | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2015-07-03 | Won | |
| 926 | 1000 | 40% | 2015-06-23 | Lost | |
| 926 | 1071 | 30% | 2015-06-01 | Lost | |
| 1063 | 926 | 69% | 2015-05-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1095 | 37% | 2015-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2015-01-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2015-01-17 | Lost | |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2014-10-26 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1140 | 31% | 2014-09-14 | Lost | |
| 926 | 1000 | 40% | 2014-07-23 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1029 | 46% | 2014-05-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1038 | 45% | 2014-04-01 | Lost | |
| 1006 | 1000 | 51% | 2014-03-30 | Lost | |
| 850 | 1000 | 30% | 2014-03-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1233 | 21% | 2014-03-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2014-01-31 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1141 | 31% | 2014-01-18 | Lost | |
| 981 | 1000 | 47% | 2014-01-11 | Lost | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2014-01-11 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1126 | 33% | 2013-05-29 | Lost | |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2013-03-02 | Won | |
| 907 | 1000 | 37% | 2012-12-29 | Won | |
| 1003 | 1000 | 50% | 2012-06-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1022 | 47% | 2012-02-16 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2011-12-31 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2011-11-30 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 1000 | 53% | 2011-11-21 | Won | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2011-11-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1047 | 43% | 2011-08-29 | Lost | |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2011-08-27 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1023 | 47% | 2011-04-07 | Lost | |
| 870 | 1000 | 32% | 2010-12-24 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1023 | 49% | 2010-12-09 | Lost | |
| 1108 | 1000 | 65% | 2010-11-24 | Won | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2010-09-04 | Won | |
| 952 | 1000 | 43% | 2010-06-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1006 | 49% | 2010-05-23 | Won | |
| 1095 | 1000 | 63% | 2010-01-01 | Lost | |
| 1022 | 1000 | 53% | 2009-12-14 | Lost | |
| 1020 | 1029 | 49% | 2009-11-24 | Won | |
| 1000 | 936 | 59% | 2009-11-12 | Won | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2009-08-08 | Lost | |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2009-08-07 | Won | |
| 966 | 1045 | 39% | 2009-07-25 | Won | |
| 1039 | 1000 | 56% | 2009-05-20 | Won | |
| 1000 | 951 | 57% | 2009-05-03 | Lost | |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2009-04-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1215 | 22% | 2009-01-03 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 913 | 62% | 2008-12-31 | Won | |
| 1003 | 1000 | 50% | 2008-12-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 891 | 65% | 2008-11-30 | Won | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2008-11-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2008-10-25 | Won | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2008-10-01 | Won | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2008-09-23 | Won | |
| 906 | 1000 | 37% | 2008-08-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1016 | 48% | 2008-07-08 | Lost | |
| 1009 | 1000 | 51% | 2008-02-16 | Won | |
| 1019 | 946 | 60% | 2008-02-05 | Lost | |
| 1152 | 1000 | 71% | 2008-01-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1152 | 29% | 2008-01-26 | Won | |
| 1152 | 1087 | 59% | 2008-01-24 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1166 | 28% | 2007-10-25 | Won | |
| 913 | 1000 | 38% | 2007-10-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1013 | 48% | 2007-07-20 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1435 | 8% | 2007-04-28 | Lost | |
| 1047 | 1156 | 35% | 2006-11-09 | Won | |
| 1040 | 1088 | 43% | 2006-10-29 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1014 | 48% | 2006-09-13 | Lost | |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2006-07-04 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2006-05-19 | Won | |
| 832 | 1195 | 11% | 2006-03-29 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1074 | 40% | 2006-03-24 | Won | |
| 1011 | 1000 | 52% | 2006-03-07 | Won | |
| 1000 | 832 | 72% | 2006-02-19 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2006-02-07 | Lost | |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2005-06-04 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1101 | 36% | 2005-04-17 | Won | |
| 1036 | 1000 | 55% | 2004-10-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1205 | 24% | 2004-09-10 | Lost | |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2004-08-30 | Won | |
| 1101 | 1000 | 64% | 2004-08-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 891 | 65% | 2004-08-18 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1262 | 18% | 2004-05-29 | Lost | |
| 1040 | 1000 | 56% | 2004-04-23 | Won |
Attacking (124 wins) average ELOs: 1019.9 vs 1021.3 has a 49.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).