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Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 272 (114 on the archive and 162 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 124
Defender wins (American): 146
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 3
Attacker wins (German): 2
Defender wins (American): 1
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 1
Defender wins (American): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 985 | 52% | 2026-08-23 | Won | |
| 938 | 1000 | 41% | 2026-06-25 | Lost | |
| 929 | 1000 | 40% | 2026-04-15 | A | Lost |
| 1059 | 942 | 66% | 2026-03-12 | Lost | |
| 942 | 1059 | 34% | 2026-02-15 | Lost | |
| 1021 | 1000 | 53% | 2026-01-24 | A | Won |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2025-11-19 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1090 | 37% | 2025-08-30 | Lost | |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2025-08-23 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1145 | 30% | 2024-09-28 | Lost | |
| 992 | 1015 | 47% | 2024-09-03 | Won | |
| 1000 | 987 | 52% | 2024-07-31 | Lost | |
| 1431 | 954 | 94% | 2024-05-08 | Won | |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2024-03-14 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1017 | 48% | 2023-12-24 | Lost | |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2023-12-17 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2023-09-02 | Lost | |
| 959 | 1174 | 22% | 2023-06-30 | Lost | |
| 958 | 1000 | 44% | 2023-06-10 | Won | |
| 1037 | 996 | 56% | 2023-05-30 | D | Won |
| 1000 | 1185 | 26% | 2023-04-15 | A | Won |
| 1000 | 1290 | 16% | 2023-03-31 | Lost | |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2023-03-23 | Won | |
| 1145 | 1000 | 70% | 2023-02-15 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1055 | 42% | 2022-12-09 | Lost | |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-11-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1015 | 48% | 2022-09-19 | Won | |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2022-08-26 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2022-06-08 | Won | |
| 1028 | 970 | 58% | 2022-05-02 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2022-04-06 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 969 | 54% | 2022-03-07 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2022-02-13 | Won | |
| 984 | 1056 | 40% | 2022-02-03 | Lost | |
| 1049 | 940 | 65% | 2022-01-17 | Won | |
| 890 | 1000 | 35% | 2021-10-31 | Tied | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2021-10-21 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2021-10-07 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1009 | 49% | 2021-10-07 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2021-06-22 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2021-06-01 | Won | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2021-04-26 | Lost | |
| 1173 | 1000 | 73% | 2021-03-08 | Won | |
| 1030 | 1000 | 54% | 2021-02-04 | Won | |
| 1002 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-01-31 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1024 | 47% | 2021-01-28 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2020-12-29 | Lost | |
| 1056 | 1000 | 58% | 2020-12-29 | Won | |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2020-08-12 | Won | |
| 1164 | 1006 | 71% | 2020-06-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2020-06-26 | Lost | |
| 989 | 1164 | 27% | 2020-06-18 | Won | |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-06-18 | Won | |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-06-11 | Lost | |
| 1258 | 989 | 82% | 2020-06-05 | Won | |
| 1220 | 1000 | 78% | 2020-03-29 | Won | |
| 1028 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-03-20 | Won | |
| 1164 | 1045 | 66% | 2020-03-17 | Won | |
| 843 | 944 | 36% | 2019-12-12 | Lost | |
| 1172 | 1057 | 66% | 2019-11-01 | Won | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2019-10-07 | Lost | |
| 1082 | 1000 | 62% | 2019-09-14 | Won | |
| 966 | 1009 | 44% | 2019-09-14 | Won | |
| 984 | 1000 | 48% | 2019-07-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2019-06-23 | Lost | |
| 945 | 1133 | 25% | 2019-06-05 | Lost | |
| 1016 | 1000 | 52% | 2018-11-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1138 | 31% | 2018-08-28 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2018-04-27 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2018-04-27 | Lost | |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2017-12-01 | Lost | |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2017-11-30 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1082 | 38% | 2017-09-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 926 | 60% | 2017-07-09 | Lost | |
| 1142 | 1000 | 69% | 2017-06-06 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1135 | 31% | 2017-05-13 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2017-04-29 | Lost | |
| 1159 | 1000 | 71% | 2017-04-26 | Lost | |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2017-03-18 | Lost | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-02-25 | Won | |
| 1013 | 1000 | 52% | 2017-02-24 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1007 | 49% | 2017-01-31 | Lost | |
| 894 | 1085 | 25% | 2016-12-10 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 890 | 65% | 2016-07-24 | Tied | |
| 966 | 1000 | 45% | 2016-03-29 | Lost | |
| 1431 | 1000 | 92% | 2015-10-17 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1159 | 29% | 2014-12-23 | Lost | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2014-08-15 | Won | |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2014-05-16 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2014-01-16 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2014-01-16 | Lost | |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2012-10-09 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 1220 | 22% | 2012-08-19 | Lost | |
| 1017 | 1000 | 52% | 2012-07-23 | Lost | |
| 1024 | 1000 | 53% | 2011-12-24 | Lost | |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2011-09-04 | Lost | |
| 959 | 1000 | 44% | 2010-05-26 | Lost | |
| 985 | 1000 | 48% | 2010-01-27 | Lost | |
| 1020 | 1029 | 49% | 2010-01-11 | Won | |
| 936 | 1000 | 41% | 2009-12-03 | Lost | |
| 936 | 1000 | 41% | 2009-11-28 | Lost | |
| 1233 | 1000 | 79% | 2009-09-08 | Lost | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2009-08-22 | Won | |
| 1126 | 1000 | 67% | 2009-08-22 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2009-02-15 | Lost | |
| 1215 | 913 | 85% | 2009-01-11 | Lost | |
| 1019 | 946 | 60% | 2008-02-21 | Won | |
| 1152 | 1087 | 59% | 2008-02-10 | Lost | |
| 1008 | 957 | 57% | 2006-12-09 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1108 | 35% | 2006-11-05 | Lost | |
| 1000 | 832 | 72% | 2006-03-18 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1011 | 48% | 2006-02-21 | Won | |
| 1000 | 1036 | 45% | 2004-12-19 | Won | |
| 1127 | 1000 | 68% | 2004-07-18 | Lost |
Attacking (50 wins) average ELOs: 1032.6 vs 1017.5 has a 52.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).