The Yelnya Bridge
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 160 (41 on the archive and 119 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 90
Defender wins (Russian): 70
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1182 | 1008 | 73% | 2026-01-24 | Won |
| 1197 | 1032 | 72% | 2026-01-23 | Won |
| 1167 | 985 | 74% | 2026-01-23 | Won |
| 1119 | 1136 | 48% | 2025-04-04 | Won |
| 1061 | 1182 | 33% | 2024-08-08 | Lost |
| 999 | 963 | 55% | 2023-11-16 | Won |
| 1080 | 951 | 68% | 2023-08-28 | Won |
| 1159 | 1097 | 59% | 2023-01-27 | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2022-02-17 | Lost |
| 1177 | 1232 | 42% | 2021-10-20 | Lost |
| 946 | 1110 | 28% | 2021-02-09 | Lost |
| 948 | 1019 | 40% | 2021-01-23 | Lost |
| 940 | 1221 | 17% | 2020-12-12 | Lost |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2018-10-14 | Won |
| 1187 | 1218 | 46% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 1193 | 1218 | 46% | 2018-03-11 | Won |
| 1054 | 1013 | 56% | 2018-01-14 | Lost |
| 1117 | 976 | 69% | 2015-04-03 | Lost |
| 1117 | 1011 | 65% | 2014-10-07 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1203 | 27% | 2014-09-26 | Won |
| 1060 | 1056 | 51% | 2013-07-15 | Lost |
| 1081 | 1117 | 45% | 2013-06-18 | Won |
| 1072 | 1063 | 51% | 2013-03-09 | Won |
| 1108 | 969 | 69% | 2012-05-22 | Won |
| 1028 | 1015 | 52% | 2011-02-26 | Won |
| 1117 | 1019 | 64% | 2010-09-03 | Won |
| 974 | 974 | 50% | 2009-03-02 | Won |
| 1233 | 1146 | 62% | 2008-10-26 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1012 | 54% | 2008-10-07 | Lost |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2008-09-11 | Lost |
| 1056 | 1036 | 53% | 2008-01-15 | Won |
| 938 | 1021 | 38% | 2007-11-11 | Lost |
| 1073 | 980 | 63% | 2007-07-16 | Won |
| 1189 | 1080 | 65% | 2007-02-16 | Won |
| 981 | 1101 | 33% | 2007-01-20 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1066 | 41% | 2006-11-24 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2006-10-19 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2006-10-19 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2006-10-12 | Won |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2006-10-03 | Won |
| 969 | 1036 | 40% | 2006-09-19 | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1074.7 vs 1068.7 has a 50.87% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).