Marders not Martyrs
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 212 (47 on the archive and 165 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 121
Defender wins (German): 90
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2024-09-08 | Won |
| 1011 | 1310 | 15% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 935 | 989 | 42% | 2024-01-13 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1042 | 45% | 2023-10-29 | Lost |
| 945 | 1109 | 28% | 2023-04-08 | Won |
| 1257 | 922 | 87% | 2023-02-19 | Won |
| 1431 | 925 | 95% | 2022-03-31 | Won |
| 1018 | 1431 | 8% | 2022-03-19 | Lost |
| 944 | 1153 | 23% | 2022-03-11 | Lost |
| 1106 | 950 | 71% | 2021-08-09 | Lost |
| 951 | 1219 | 18% | 2020-09-12 | Won |
| 1055 | 1165 | 35% | 2020-04-07 | Won |
| 1014 | 1003 | 52% | 2019-07-20 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1204 | 40% | 2019-07-06 | Won |
| 960 | 903 | 58% | 2016-12-31 | Lost |
| 1005 | 984 | 53% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 922 | 984 | 41% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 1005 | 984 | 53% | 2014-06-13 | Won |
| 1058 | 976 | 62% | 2014-05-10 | Lost |
| 1132 | 1005 | 68% | 2013-01-08 | Won |
| 1132 | 1005 | 68% | 2013-01-07 | Won |
| 983 | 1060 | 39% | 2012-08-15 | Won |
| 1116 | 1091 | 54% | 2012-01-04 | Won |
| 1154 | 1016 | 69% | 2011-08-01 | Won |
| 940 | 952 | 48% | 2011-06-20 | Won |
| 928 | 1107 | 26% | 2010-09-07 | Lost |
| 953 | 1019 | 41% | 2010-08-23 | Lost |
| 919 | 959 | 44% | 2010-08-15 | Won |
| 996 | 1031 | 45% | 2010-06-13 | Lost |
| 983 | 1091 | 35% | 2010-03-20 | Tied |
| 982 | 1012 | 46% | 2008-09-02 | Won |
| 920 | 1132 | 23% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 982 | 1189 | 23% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 1031 | 959 | 60% | 2007-10-28 | Won |
| 1180 | 1228 | 43% | 2007-10-17 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1031 | 59% | 2007-09-18 | Won |
| 1081 | 1141 | 41% | 2007-06-20 | Won |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2007-02-16 | Won |
| 1037 | 1185 | 30% | 2006-12-02 | Won |
| 1058 | 1099 | 44% | 2006-11-24 | Won |
| 1098 | 1096 | 50% | 2006-11-14 | Won |
| 1096 | 1098 | 50% | 2006-11-14 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1037 | 58% | 2006-09-30 | Lost |
| 1048 | 1065 | 48% | 2006-09-15 | Won |
| 922 | 922 | 50% | 2006-09-07 | Lost |
| 965 | 1036 | 40% | 2006-09-05 | Won |
| 894 | 1025 | 32% | 2006-08-23 | Won |
Attacking (30 wins) average ELOs: 1030.1 vs 1059.3 has a 45.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).