The Grist Mill
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 10 (7 on the archive and 3 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (NKPA): 3
Defender wins (American): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1143 | 1186 | 44% | 2026-07-24 | Won |
| 928 | 1021 | 37% | 2021-09-12 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1053 | 49% | 2019-10-08 | Won |
| 1060 | 930 | 68% | 2018-11-29 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1077 | 58% | 2018-04-29 | Lost |
| 1092 | 955 | 69% | 2018-04-23 | Lost |
| 957 | 1227 | 17% | 2007-03-09 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1051.6 vs 1064.1 has a 48.19% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).