Pavlov's House
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 120 (27 on the archive and 93 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 46
Defender wins (Russian): 73
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1030 | 1030 | 50% | 2026-05-09 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1027 | 56% | 2023-10-10 | Lost |
| 959 | 891 | 60% | 2022-11-30 | Lost |
| 985 | 989 | 49% | 2022-02-22 | Lost |
| 1077 | 953 | 67% | 2020-10-27 | Lost |
| 909 | 1066 | 29% | 2019-11-09 | Won |
| 964 | 1254 | 16% | 2019-07-17 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1083 | 39% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 1005 | 1083 | 39% | 2019-05-10 | Lost |
| 875 | 1127 | 19% | 2016-09-03 | Lost |
| 1117 | 968 | 70% | 2013-05-11 | Won |
| 1071 | 1155 | 38% | 2013-01-05 | Lost |
| 1102 | 885 | 78% | 2012-05-25 | Won |
| 1131 | 1039 | 63% | 2011-08-21 | Lost |
| 1101 | 870 | 79% | 2011-02-03 | Won |
| 1133 | 1233 | 36% | 2010-10-01 | Lost |
| 969 | 943 | 54% | 2010-05-08 | Lost |
| 972 | 1129 | 29% | 2010-04-25 | Lost |
| 972 | 1129 | 29% | 2010-03-25 | Won |
| 1144 | 1263 | 34% | 2010-01-17 | Lost |
| 1040 | 882 | 71% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1095 | 1101 | 49% | 2008-06-27 | Lost |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2008-06-11 | Won |
| 1269 | 1035 | 79% | 2008-05-27 | Tied |
| 1039 | 1070 | 46% | 2008-02-23 | Won |
| 1056 | 933 | 67% | 2008-01-18 | Won |
| 1119 | 1039 | 61% | | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1048.5 vs 1047.1 has a 50.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).