Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (Italian): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 905 | 870 | 55% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 997 | 1049 | 43% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 977 | 1008 | 46% | 2019-09-15 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1087 | 50% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1238 | 1196 | 56% | 2018-12-07 | Lost |
| 933 | 1219 | 16% | 2018-03-12 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1033 | 47% | 2017-09-03 | Won |
| 1056 | 982 | 60% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1104 | 40% | 2016-04-19 | Lost |
| 1034 | 1050 | 48% | 2015-01-17 | Won |
| 1314 | 1323 | 49% | 2013-06-13 | Won |
| 1314 | 1159 | 71% | 2013-04-12 | Won |
| 1067 | 1091 | 47% | 2013-03-12 | Won |
| 1115 | 1159 | 44% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1060 | 1164 | 35% | 2010-12-15 | Lost |
| 917 | 1314 | 9% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1044 | 63% | 2009-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1034 | 43% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1036 | 47% | 2008-10-11 | Lost |
| 964 | 1107 | 31% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1152 | 981 | 73% | 2008-10-06 | Won |
| 1182 | 1010 | 73% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1066 vs 1092.2 has a 46.23% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).