Sting of the Italian Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (Canadian): 8
Defender wins (Italian): 16
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 905 | 890 | 52% | 2024-10-14 | Won |
| 1000 | 1049 | 43% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1093 | 41% | 2024-05-19 | Lost |
| 977 | 1008 | 46% | 2019-09-15 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2019-03-10 | Lost |
| 1215 | 1193 | 53% | 2018-12-07 | Lost |
| 932 | 1219 | 16% | 2018-03-12 | Lost |
| 982 | 1084 | 36% | 2017-09-03 | Won |
| 1056 | 982 | 60% | 2017-09-02 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1105 | 40% | 2016-04-19 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1063 | 46% | 2015-01-17 | Won |
| 1333 | 1323 | 51% | 2013-06-13 | Won |
| 1333 | 1158 | 73% | 2013-04-12 | Won |
| 1067 | 1091 | 47% | 2013-03-12 | Won |
| 1127 | 1127 | 50% | 2011-10-08 | Won |
| 1065 | 1162 | 36% | 2010-12-15 | Lost |
| 917 | 1333 | 8% | 2009-09-11 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1075 | 59% | 2009-02-03 | Lost |
| 983 | 1035 | 43% | 2009-01-25 | Lost |
| 1012 | 1028 | 48% | 2008-10-11 | Lost |
| 964 | 1106 | 31% | 2008-10-10 | Lost |
| 1152 | 981 | 73% | 2008-10-06 | Won |
| 1145 | 1001 | 70% | 2008-09-23 | Lost |
| 998 | 713 | 84% | 2008-09-20 | Lost |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1062 vs 1079.5 has a 47.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).