Road to Kozani Pass
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 44 (17 on the archive and 27 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 21
Defender wins (British/New Zealand): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1133 | 965 | 72% | 2022-11-26 | | Won |
| 1110 | 1218 | 35% | 2021-10-30 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 1218 | 42% | 2021-10-29 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 994 | 78% | 2021-02-03 | | Lost |
| 1105 | 1097 | 51% | 2019-11-24 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2019-08-02 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2018-12-24 | | Lost |
| 1242 | 953 | 84% | 2018-12-15 | | Won |
| 1088 | 1000 | 62% | 2018-10-07 | | Won |
| 1159 | 961 | 76% | 2017-06-22 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1226 | 21% | 2014-04-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1127 | 32% | 2014-02-22 | | Won |
| 960 | 966 | 49% | 2012-09-30 | | Won |
| 1010 | 1074 | 41% | 2012-08-24 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2012-07-21 | | Lost |
| 1156 | 1056 | 64% | 2010-10-09 | | Tied |
| 961 | 1090 | 32% | 2010-02-16 | | Won |
Attacking (8 wins) average ELOs: 1076.5 vs 1074.6 has a 50.28% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).