Swatting a Hornet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 43 (10 on the archive and 33 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 9
Defender wins (German): 34
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1010 | 935 | 61% | 2025-06-09 | Lost |
| 1002 | 956 | 57% | 2021-07-17 | Won |
| 933 | 1221 | 16% | 2019-10-16 | Lost |
| 1263 | 1233 | 54% | 2016-09-17 | Lost |
| 999 | 1313 | 14% | 2013-08-22 | Lost |
| 982 | 963 | 53% | 2013-07-23 | Lost |
| 1146 | 987 | 71% | 2011-10-30 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1164 | 33% | 2011-01-15 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1025 | 62% | 2009-07-31 | Lost |
| 712 | 1151 | 7% | 2009-06-23 | Lost |
Attacking (1 wins) average ELOs: 1019.5 vs 1094.8 has a 39.33% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).