Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 14
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 6
Defender wins (American): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1036 | 960 | 61% | 2024-09-06 | Won |
| 1159 | 1021 | 69% | 2024-05-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-10-11 | Lost |
| 1134 | 983 | 70% | 2021-10-02 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2021-08-01 | Lost |
| 1000 | 1051 | 43% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1000 | 1023 | 47% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 1000 | 1000 | 50% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 994 | 984 | 51% | 2019-11-13 | Won |
| 984 | 992 | 49% | 2019-11-12 | Lost |
| 999 | 1000 | 50% | 2013-07-10 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1000 | 51% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1029 | 1000 | 54% | 2011-10-06 | Lost |
| 812 | 1161 | 12% | 2010-06-22 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1011.2 vs 1012.5 has a 49.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).