Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 13
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 6
Defender wins (American): 7
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1044 | 949 | 63% | 2024-09-06 | Won |
| 1248 | 1088 | 72% | 2024-05-01 | Lost |
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2021-10-11 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1026 | 84% | 2021-10-02 | Won |
| 1019 | 1157 | 31% | 2021-08-01 | Lost |
| 1219 | 1029 | 75% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1064 | 1031 | 55% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 959 | 1132 | 27% | 2019-11-13 | Won |
| 1132 | 959 | 73% | 2019-11-12 | Lost |
| 1016 | 963 | 58% | 2013-07-10 | Lost |
| 1098 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1089 | 1074 | 52% | 2011-10-06 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1088.5 vs 1019.5 has a 59.8% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).