Prelim to Death Night
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 14
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 6
Defender wins (American): 8
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1002 | 956 | 57% | 2024-09-06 | Won |
| 1223 | 1090 | 68% | 2024-05-01 | Lost |
| 971 | 945 | 54% | 2021-10-11 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1026 | 84% | 2021-10-02 | Won |
| 1006 | 1151 | 30% | 2021-08-01 | Lost |
| 1221 | 1030 | 75% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1064 | 1072 | 49% | 2020-03-07 | Won |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-01-29 | Lost |
| 1078 | 1132 | 42% | 2019-11-13 | Won |
| 1132 | 1078 | 58% | 2019-11-12 | Lost |
| 993 | 963 | 54% | 2013-07-10 | Lost |
| 1100 | 870 | 79% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1074 | 1058 | 52% | 2011-10-06 | Lost |
| 712 | 1151 | 7% | 2010-06-22 | Lost |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1062.2 vs 1039.5 has a 53.26% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).