An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 110 (11 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 44
Defender wins (German): 66
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 957 | 889 | 60% | 2023-04-16 | Won |
| 1113 | 1113 | 50% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 734 | 1282 | 4% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 930 | 1174 | 20% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 930 | 903 | 54% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 1282 | 986 | 85% | 2020-05-05 | Won |
| 879 | 864 | 52% | 2018-07-22 | Lost |
| 1107 | 975 | 68% | 2012-12-15 | Lost |
| 1078 | 978 | 64% | 2012-03-22 | Lost |
| 986 | 1133 | 30% | 2011-04-23 | Won |
| 986 | 913 | 60% | 2011-02-09 | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 998.4 vs 1019.1 has a 47.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).