An Uncommon Occurrence
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 110 (11 on the archive and 99 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 44
Defender wins (German): 66
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 968 | 889 | 61% | 2023-04-16 | Won |
| 1095 | 1095 | 50% | 2021-05-20 | Lost |
| 736 | 1274 | 4% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 947 | 1167 | 22% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 947 | 903 | 56% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1000 | 83% | 2020-05-05 | Won |
| 885 | 864 | 53% | 2018-07-22 | Lost |
| 1107 | 975 | 68% | 2012-12-15 | Lost |
| 1055 | 978 | 61% | 2012-03-22 | Lost |
| 986 | 1133 | 30% | 2011-04-23 | Won |
| 986 | 913 | 60% | 2011-02-09 | Won |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 998.7 vs 1017.4 has a 47.32% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).