Messervy's Men
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23
Attacker wins (British): 10
Defender wins (Italian): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1029 | 1412 | 10% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 976 | 959 | 52% | 2022-10-27 | Won |
| 1049 | 1009 | 56% | 2022-07-09 | Lost |
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2022-02-12 | Won |
| 903 | 903 | 50% | 2021-11-01 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1092 | 38% | 2020-12-04 | Won |
| 1014 | 1014 | 50% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 861 | 1219 | 11% | 2019-11-03 | Lost |
| 950 | 1084 | 32% | 2017-08-20 | Lost |
| 1111 | 949 | 72% | 2017-07-29 | Won |
| 1044 | 1095 | 43% | 2017-07-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1086 | 39% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1038 | 1053 | 48% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 957 | 1036 | 39% | 2013-08-18 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-06-30 | Lost |
| 920 | 1058 | 31% | 2012-06-17 | Won |
| 952 | 1014 | 41% | 2011-10-08 | Lost |
| 1031 | 1077 | 43% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1116 | 47% | 2011-05-14 | Lost |
| 896 | 938 | 44% | 2011-03-24 | Lost |
| 749 | 952 | 24% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 954 | 1089 | 31% | 2011-02-05 | Lost |
Attacking (10 wins) average ELOs: 994.4 vs 1055.7 has a 41.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).