Messervy's Men
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (British): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1054 | 1077 | 47% | 2025-11-30 | Won |
| 1018 | 1423 | 9% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 1274 | 1135 | 69% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 990 | 991 | 50% | 2022-10-27 | Won |
| 1227 | 1011 | 78% | 2022-07-09 | Lost |
| 949 | 949 | 50% | 2022-02-12 | Won |
| 967 | 967 | 50% | 2021-11-01 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1066 | 42% | 2020-12-04 | Won |
| 1189 | 1081 | 65% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 861 | 1102 | 20% | 2019-11-03 | Lost |
| 1039 | 1027 | 52% | 2017-08-20 | Lost |
| 1110 | 1097 | 52% | 2017-07-29 | Won |
| 932 | 1087 | 29% | 2017-07-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1072 | 41% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1038 | 1088 | 43% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 957 | 1054 | 36% | 2013-08-18 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-06-30 | Lost |
| 918 | 1098 | 26% | 2012-06-17 | Won |
| 901 | 1011 | 35% | 2011-10-08 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1078 | 52% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1098 | 1073 | 54% | 2011-05-14 | Lost |
| 894 | 936 | 44% | 2011-03-24 | Lost |
| 749 | 901 | 29% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 953 | 1045 | 37% | 2011-02-05 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1013.2 vs 1060.7 has a 43.2% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).