Messervy's Men
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24
Attacker wins (British): 11
Defender wins (Italian): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1054 | 1066 | 48% | 2025-11-30 | Won |
| 1017 | 1430 | 8% | 2023-06-10 | Lost |
| 1232 | 1177 | 58% | 2022-11-23 | Won |
| 991 | 1019 | 46% | 2022-10-27 | Won |
| 1226 | 1015 | 77% | 2022-07-09 | Lost |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2022-02-12 | Won |
| 1008 | 1012 | 49% | 2021-11-01 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1066 | 42% | 2020-12-04 | Won |
| 1189 | 1080 | 65% | 2020-06-14 | Won |
| 862 | 1054 | 25% | 2019-11-03 | Lost |
| 1122 | 970 | 71% | 2017-08-20 | Lost |
| 1110 | 938 | 73% | 2017-07-29 | Won |
| 1056 | 1060 | 49% | 2017-07-29 | Lost |
| 1008 | 1072 | 41% | 2017-04-08 | Won |
| 1038 | 1088 | 43% | 2015-05-23 | Won |
| 957 | 1019 | 41% | 2013-08-18 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2013-06-30 | Lost |
| 917 | 1117 | 24% | 2012-06-17 | Won |
| 893 | 1028 | 31% | 2011-10-08 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1078 | 49% | 2011-08-08 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1023 | 61% | 2011-05-14 | Lost |
| 894 | 936 | 44% | 2011-03-24 | Lost |
| 748 | 893 | 30% | 2011-03-11 | Won |
| 953 | 983 | 46% | 2011-02-05 | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1020.4 vs 1048.3 has a 46% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).