Penny Packets
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 59 (18 on the archive and 41 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 28
Defender wins (American): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1049 | 1037 | 52% | 2025-06-29 | Lost |
| 1141 | 1117 | 53% | 2024-11-27 | Lost |
| 1194 | 1074 | 67% | 2024-06-22 | Won |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2023-10-22 | Lost |
| 925 | 1117 | 25% | 2021-05-13 | Lost |
| 824 | 878 | 42% | 2021-05-11 | Lost |
| 1035 | 1026 | 51% | 2021-05-10 | Won |
| 1217 | 1191 | 54% | 2018-04-25 | Won |
| 1217 | 1198 | 53% | 2018-04-25 | Won |
| 1110 | 1192 | 38% | 2015-03-15 | Lost |
| 1173 | 1169 | 51% | 2013-12-27 | Won |
| 985 | 951 | 55% | 2013-04-09 | Lost |
| 997 | 1059 | 41% | 2012-06-28 | Won |
| 979 | 1076 | 36% | 2011-08-27 | Won |
| 1101 | 1095 | 51% | 2011-08-15 | Won |
| 1019 | 1018 | 50% | 2011-06-27 | Lost |
| 1055 | 1123 | 40% | 2011-02-22 | Won |
| 1068 | 1225 | 29% | 2010-11-28 | Lost |
Attacking (9 wins) average ELOs: 1065.4 vs 1090.8 has a 46.35% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).