Guns for St. Barbara
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 16
Attacker wins (American): 12
Defender wins (German): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1152 | 1064 | 62% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 870 | 1218 | 12% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1218 | 29% | 2019-11-15 | Won |
| 947 | 947 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1065 | 943 | 67% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 938 | 1158 | 22% | 2015-02-02 | Won |
| 975 | 1038 | 41% | 2015-01-24 | Won |
| 1140 | 1163 | 47% | 2014-10-07 | Won |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-06-15 | Tied |
| 1056 | 884 | 73% | 2014-05-15 | Won |
| 920 | 976 | 42% | 2012-12-28 | Won |
| 1110 | 1023 | 62% | 2012-04-09 | Won |
| 936 | 894 | 56% | 2011-07-04 | Won |
| 1120 | 970 | 70% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 1037 | 1191 | 29% | 2011-03-19 | Lost |
| 1211 | 1040 | 73% | 2011-01-14 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1033.4 vs 1046.5 has a 48.12% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).