Guns for St. Barbara
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 15
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (German): 3
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1149 | 1219 | 40% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 907 | 1219 | 14% | 2019-11-21 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1219 | 28% | 2019-11-15 | Won |
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2018-11-11 | Lost |
| 1044 | 949 | 63% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 912 | 1158 | 20% | 2015-02-02 | Won |
| 1003 | 1038 | 45% | 2015-01-24 | Won |
| 999 | 1017 | 47% | 2014-06-15 | Tied |
| 1054 | 952 | 64% | 2014-05-15 | Won |
| 919 | 976 | 42% | 2012-12-28 | Won |
| 1067 | 1116 | 43% | 2012-04-09 | Won |
| 938 | 896 | 56% | 2011-07-04 | Won |
| 1110 | 970 | 69% | 2011-05-14 | Won |
| 1038 | 1141 | 36% | 2011-03-19 | Lost |
| 940 | 1140 | 24% | 2011-01-14 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1004.5 vs 1062.6 has a 41.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).