By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (23 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (American): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1099 | 1058 | 56% | 2025-06-28 | Lost |
| 1146 | 1170 | 47% | 2024-10-27 | Won |
| 1125 | 1074 | 57% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 997 | 1049 | 43% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1030 | 1087 | 42% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1115 | 1110 | 51% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 946 | 1105 | 29% | 2023-01-21 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1016 | 62% | 2022-01-13 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1313 | 20% | 2021-10-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2021-07-13 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1162 | 44% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1154 | 1037 | 66% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1037 | 66% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1000 | 60% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 890 | 1044 | 29% | 2017-07-30 | Won |
| 987 | 970 | 52% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1007 | 1107 | 36% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1118 | 877 | 80% | 2014-02-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1152 | 25% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1250 | 1289 | 44% | 2012-07-28 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1107 | 43% | 2012-05-18 | Won |
| 1020 | 1243 | 22% | 2012-03-11 | Lost |
| 905 | 957 | 43% | 2012-03-11 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1056 vs 1084.6 has a 45.89% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).