By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (23 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (American): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1098 | 1123 | 46% | 2025-06-28 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1134 | 53% | 2024-10-27 | Won |
| 1125 | 1051 | 60% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1049 | 45% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1030 | 1080 | 43% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1127 | 1110 | 52% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 946 | 1105 | 29% | 2023-01-21 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1016 | 62% | 2022-01-13 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1333 | 18% | 2021-10-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2021-07-13 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1162 | 44% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1153 | 1028 | 67% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1028 | 67% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 881 | 1065 | 26% | 2017-07-30 | Won |
| 974 | 970 | 51% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1007 | 1106 | 36% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1070 | 922 | 70% | 2014-02-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1152 | 25% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1249 | 1207 | 56% | 2012-07-28 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1106 | 43% | 2012-05-18 | Won |
| 1020 | 1243 | 22% | 2012-03-11 | Lost |
| 907 | 957 | 43% | 2012-03-11 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1053.3 vs 1083.9 has a 45.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).