By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 95 (23 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (American): 47
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1098 | 1122 | 47% | 2025-06-28 | Lost |
| 1143 | 1132 | 52% | 2024-10-27 | Won |
| 1125 | 1051 | 60% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 983 | 1049 | 41% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1030 | 1075 | 44% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1163 | 1103 | 59% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 948 | 1105 | 29% | 2023-01-21 | Lost |
| 1075 | 1016 | 58% | 2022-01-13 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1333 | 18% | 2021-10-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2021-07-13 | Lost |
| 1123 | 1100 | 53% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1153 | 1002 | 70% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1153 | 1002 | 70% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1000 | 57% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 882 | 1089 | 23% | 2017-07-30 | Won |
| 1009 | 959 | 57% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1007 | 1106 | 36% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1060 | 919 | 69% | 2014-02-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1152 | 25% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1249 | 1232 | 52% | 2012-07-28 | Lost |
| 1059 | 1106 | 43% | 2012-05-18 | Won |
| 1020 | 1244 | 22% | 2012-03-11 | Lost |
| 1006 | 957 | 57% | 2012-03-11 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1057.6 vs 1079.8 has a 46.81% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).