By Dawn's Early Light
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 96 (24 on the archive and 72 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 48
Defender wins (American): 48
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1099 | 994 | 65% | 2025-06-28 | Lost |
| 1208 | 1169 | 56% | 2024-10-27 | Won |
| 1116 | 974 | 69% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 993 | 976 | 52% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1022 | 1031 | 49% | 2023-03-27 | Won |
| 1159 | 1102 | 58% | 2023-01-21 | Won |
| 948 | 1097 | 30% | 2023-01-21 | Lost |
| 1066 | 1005 | 59% | 2022-01-13 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1234 | 31% | 2021-10-03 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2021-07-13 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1121 | 50% | 2021-04-08 | Won |
| 1170 | 1003 | 72% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 1170 | 1003 | 72% | 2019-11-23 | Lost |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2019-10-30 | Won |
| 876 | 1080 | 24% | 2017-07-30 | Won |
| 1097 | 1263 | 28% | 2017-07-30 | Lost |
| 1005 | 958 | 57% | 2017-05-18 | Won |
| 1009 | 1120 | 35% | 2014-07-07 | Lost |
| 1040 | 941 | 64% | 2014-02-23 | Lost |
| 961 | 1141 | 26% | 2012-11-04 | Won |
| 1252 | 1220 | 55% | 2012-07-28 | Lost |
| 1052 | 1107 | 42% | 2012-05-18 | Won |
| 1019 | 1253 | 21% | 2012-03-11 | Lost |
| 1015 | 957 | 58% | 2012-03-11 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1059.3 vs 1072.1 has a 48.16% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).