Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 178 (47 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 75
Defender wins (German): 99
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1110 | 1142 | 45% | 2025-04-06 | Lost |
| 993 | 1064 | 40% | 2024-11-23 | Won |
| 1044 | 1048 | 49% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1061 | 43% | 2024-04-28 | Lost |
| 982 | 999 | 48% | 2024-02-07 | Lost |
| 900 | 1011 | 35% | 2024-01-05 | Lost |
| 898 | 870 | 54% | 2023-08-09 | Lost |
| 1189 | 998 | 75% | 2023-01-12 | Won |
| 962 | 1033 | 40% | 2022-10-08 | Won |
| 1061 | 1044 | 52% | 2021-03-19 | Lost |
| 870 | 1064 | 25% | 2020-12-13 | Lost |
| 1096 | 1032 | 59% | 2020-06-28 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1027 | 58% | 2020-04-01 | Won |
| 1031 | 982 | 57% | 2020-03-16 | Lost |
| 949 | 1034 | 38% | 2019-12-14 | Lost |
| 1044 | 995 | 57% | 2018-09-15 | Won |
| 979 | 909 | 60% | 2018-08-10 | Won |
| 1133 | 1098 | 55% | 2018-06-21 | Tied |
| 1097 | 1036 | 59% | 2018-05-25 | Lost |
| 1027 | 1268 | 20% | 2018-05-19 | Lost |
| 1268 | 949 | 86% | 2018-05-02 | Won |
| 970 | 1127 | 29% | 2017-11-11 | Lost |
| 1068 | 1025 | 56% | 2017-09-30 | Won |
| 1024 | 1082 | 42% | 2017-09-24 | Won |
| 1242 | 1168 | 60% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1163 | 52% | 2016-03-29 | Lost |
| 1104 | 1034 | 60% | 2015-09-09 | Lost |
| 914 | 927 | 48% | 2015-02-18 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1110 | 42% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1054 | 1122 | 40% | 2013-10-05 | Lost |
| 1151 | 998 | 71% | 2013-09-01 | Won |
| 1052 | 1024 | 54% | 2013-05-18 | Won |
| 1025 | 1060 | 45% | 2013-05-18 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1178 | 35% | 2013-04-04 | Won |
| 1057 | 996 | 59% | 2013-03-19 | Lost |
| 949 | 1143 | 25% | 2013-02-08 | Tied |
| 1242 | 1029 | 77% | 2012-07-28 | Won |
| 998 | 999 | 50% | 2012-06-18 | Lost |
| 1125 | 1108 | 52% | 2012-03-16 | Won |
| 1176 | 1044 | 68% | 2012-03-09 | Won |
| 1413 | 992 | 92% | 2012-01-23 | Tied |
| 1041 | 1044 | 50% | 2012-01-16 | Lost |
| 1118 | 962 | 71% | 2012-01-14 | Lost |
| 1329 | 1190 | 69% | 2012-01-11 | Won |
| 994 | 1158 | 28% | 2011-11-13 | Lost |
| 1154 | 1115 | 56% | 2011-06-16 | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1070 vs 1053.5 has a 52.38% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).