Tolstoy Woods
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 179 (49 on the archive and 131 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Russian): 75
Defender wins (German): 101
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (Russian): 0
Defender wins (German): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 1142 | 31% | 2025-04-06 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1037 | 45% | 2024-11-23 | | Won |
| 977 | 1000 | 47% | 2024-11-16 | | Lost |
| 1038 | 1000 | 55% | 2024-04-28 | D | Lost |
| 989 | 1001 | 48% | 2024-02-07 | | Lost |
| 967 | 1015 | 43% | 2024-01-05 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 940 | 59% | 2023-08-09 | | Lost |
| 1159 | 944 | 78% | 2023-01-12 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1019 | 47% | 2022-10-08 | | Won |
| 1000 | 977 | 53% | 2021-03-19 | | Lost |
| 940 | 1037 | 36% | 2020-12-13 | | Lost |
| 1108 | 1032 | 61% | 2020-06-28 | | Lost |
| 1031 | 1000 | 54% | 2020-04-01 | | Won |
| 1000 | 983 | 52% | 2020-03-16 | | Lost |
| 1126 | 1007 | 66% | 2019-12-14 | | Lost |
| 945 | 1343 | 9% | 2019-06-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 974 | 54% | 2018-09-15 | | Won |
| 1000 | 966 | 55% | 2018-08-10 | | Won |
| 1134 | 1044 | 63% | 2018-06-21 | | Tied |
| 1000 | 1056 | 42% | 2018-05-25 | | Lost |
| 1028 | 1258 | 21% | 2018-05-19 | | Lost |
| 1258 | 1126 | 68% | 2018-05-02 | | Won |
| 970 | 1133 | 28% | 2017-11-11 | | Lost |
| 1051 | 997 | 58% | 2017-09-30 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1031 | 46% | 2017-09-24 | | Won |
| 1170 | 1000 | 73% | 2016-06-26 | | Lost |
| 1187 | 1126 | 59% | 2016-03-29 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 1035 | 61% | 2015-09-09 | | Lost |
| 913 | 1000 | 38% | 2015-02-18 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2013-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1055 | 1127 | 40% | 2013-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1252 | 1000 | 81% | 2013-09-01 | | Won |
| 1055 | 1000 | 58% | 2013-05-18 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1147 | 30% | 2013-05-18 | | Lost |
| 1071 | 1000 | 60% | 2013-04-04 | | Won |
| 1060 | 1000 | 59% | 2013-03-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1040 | 44% | 2013-02-09 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1098 | 36% | 2013-02-08 | | Tied |
| 1170 | 1023 | 70% | 2012-07-28 | | Won |
| 966 | 995 | 46% | 2012-06-18 | | Lost |
| 1125 | 1000 | 67% | 2012-03-16 | | Won |
| 1187 | 1167 | 53% | 2012-03-09 | | Won |
| 1435 | 994 | 93% | 2012-01-23 | | Tied |
| 940 | 1167 | 21% | 2012-01-16 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2012-01-14 | | Lost |
| 1219 | 1000 | 78% | 2012-01-11 | | Won |
| 1031 | 1214 | 26% | 2011-11-13 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1156 | 29% | 2011-06-16 | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1058.7 vs 1049 has a 51.4% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).