The Bet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24 (9 on the archive and 15 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 10
Defender wins (Norwegian): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1114 | 1184 | 40% | 2021-04-15 | Won |
| 931 | 1217 | 16% | 2020-01-12 | Lost |
| 1006 | 1045 | 44% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1125 | 891 | 79% | 2015-06-21 | Won |
| 906 | 1098 | 25% | 2015-05-16 | Lost |
| 952 | 1043 | 37% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 980 | 1059 | 39% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1029 | 1004 | 54% | 2014-02-08 | Won |
| 1045 | 844 | 76% | 2013-12-06 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1009.8 vs 1042.8 has a 45.27% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).