The Bet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 26 (10 on the archive and 16 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 17
Defender wins (Norwegian): 9
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1038 | 992 | 57% | 2026-04-01 | Won |
| 1133 | 1077 | 58% | 2021-04-15 | Won |
| 931 | 1217 | 16% | 2020-01-12 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1046 | 45% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1130 | 890 | 80% | 2015-06-21 | Won |
| 906 | 1130 | 22% | 2015-05-16 | Lost |
| 961 | 1057 | 37% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 980 | 1038 | 42% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1003 | 53% | 2014-02-08 | Won |
| 1046 | 844 | 76% | 2013-12-06 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1016.1 vs 1029.4 has a 48.09% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).