The Bet
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 24 (9 on the archive and 15 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 10
Defender wins (Norwegian): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1114 | 1176 | 41% | 2021-04-15 | Won |
| 931 | 1218 | 16% | 2020-01-12 | Lost |
| 1005 | 983 | 53% | 2015-11-07 | Lost |
| 1125 | 890 | 79% | 2015-06-21 | Won |
| 905 | 1117 | 23% | 2015-05-16 | Lost |
| 967 | 1043 | 39% | 2015-05-16 | Won |
| 980 | 1038 | 42% | 2014-02-24 | Lost |
| 1023 | 1003 | 53% | 2014-02-08 | Won |
| 983 | 843 | 69% | 2013-12-06 | Won |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1003.7 vs 1034.6 has a 45.57% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).