Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 69 (24 on the archive and 45 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 37
Defender wins (American): 32
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1060 | 1102 | 44% | 2026-03-16 | Lost |
| 1002 | 961 | 56% | 2025-01-14 | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1144 | 1024 | 67% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1041 | 53% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1042 | 1055 | 48% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 885 | 1115 | 21% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1136 | 992 | 70% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 962 | 962 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1176 | 1226 | 43% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1048 | 893 | 71% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1114 | 967 | 70% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1095 | 851 | 80% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 786 | 1226 | 7% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 756 | 986 | 21% | 2016-09-13 | Lost |
| 1087 | 1264 | 27% | 2016-08-06 | Lost |
| 1264 | 953 | 86% | 2016-06-18 | Won |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1264 | 1108 | 71% | 2015-10-28 | Won |
| 1110 | 1120 | 49% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1117 | 26% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1039 | 1017 | 53% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1117 | 1125 | 49% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1101 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1052.9 vs 1059.7 has a 49.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).