Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 63 (19 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1006 | 1013 | 49% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 979 | 1011 | 45% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1013 | 1041 | 46% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1073 | 1054 | 53% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 979 | 1024 | 44% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1135 | 930 | 76% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 954 | 954 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1185 | 1225 | 44% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1047 | 878 | 73% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1114 | 969 | 70% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1098 | 889 | 77% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 794 | 1226 | 8% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 756 | 978 | 22% | 2016-09-13 | Lost |
| 1174 | 1226 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1110 | 1123 | 48% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1078 | 30% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1040 | 1049 | 49% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1078 | 1124 | 43% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1100 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1026.2 vs 1046.9 has a 47.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).