Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (18 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1032 | 1032 | 50% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1010 | 1048 | 45% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1010 | 1042 | 45% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1055 | 50% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 967 | 986 | 47% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1124 | 938 | 74% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1213 | 1222 | 49% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1062 | 846 | 78% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1113 | 949 | 72% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1100 | 873 | 79% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 805 | 1223 | 8% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1162 | 1121 | 56% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 931 | 1060 | 32% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1040 | 940 | 64% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1060 | 1110 | 43% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1033 | 1100 | 40% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1048.2 vs 1041.4 has a 50.98% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).