Second Thoughts
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 62 (18 on the archive and 44 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German (SS)): 33
Defender wins (American): 29
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 927 | 956 | 46% | 2022-07-26 | Won |
| 1005 | 1018 | 48% | 2022-02-26 | Lost |
| 1009 | 1040 | 46% | 2021-11-19 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1053 | 59% | 2021-08-08 | Won |
| 949 | 1044 | 37% | 2021-01-13 | Lost |
| 1116 | 910 | 77% | 2020-05-17 | Won |
| 929 | 929 | 50% | 2020-01-31 | Won |
| 1248 | 1049 | 76% | 2020-01-31 | Lost |
| 1003 | 835 | 72% | 2019-01-01 | Lost |
| 1079 | 959 | 67% | 2018-06-13 | Won |
| 1100 | 889 | 77% | 2017-02-11 | Won |
| 819 | 1223 | 9% | 2016-10-23 | Lost |
| 1171 | 1223 | 43% | 2016-02-21 | Won |
| 1154 | 1117 | 55% | 2014-12-04 | Won |
| 932 | 1058 | 33% | 2014-07-18 | Won |
| 1039 | 940 | 64% | 2014-03-05 | Won |
| 1058 | 1106 | 43% | 2013-07-04 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1098 | 41% | 2013-04-13 | Won |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 1038.1 vs 1024.8 has a 51.91% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).