Semper Paratus
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (21 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 36
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 1077 | 28% | 2025-11-02 | Won |
| 997 | 1056 | 42% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 759 | 868 | 35% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 1007 | 961 | 57% | 2022-11-12 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1070 | 43% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 1022 | 1004 | 53% | 2022-07-14 | Won |
| 997 | 1050 | 42% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1176 | 48% | 2020-12-20 | Lost |
| 945 | 1126 | 26% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 951 | 924 | 54% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 940 | 971 | 46% | 2017-01-04 | Won |
| 1180 | 1030 | 70% | 2016-01-18 | Won |
| 1084 | 915 | 73% | 2013-11-22 | Won |
| 975 | 759 | 78% | 2013-11-16 | Lost |
| 972 | 1107 | 31% | 2013-08-09 | Won |
| 1146 | 1081 | 59% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1081 | 1146 | 41% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1028 | 1180 | 29% | 2013-03-22 | Won |
| 1143 | 759 | 90% | 2013-03-07 | Won |
| 986 | 804 | 74% | 2013-02-04 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1018.1 vs 1006.6 has a 51.66% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).