Semper Paratus
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 51 (20 on the archive and 31 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 34
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 891 | 868 | 53% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 987 | 980 | 51% | 2022-11-12 | Lost |
| 1030 | 1100 | 40% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 1033 | 1023 | 51% | 2022-07-14 | Won |
| 1066 | 988 | 61% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1176 | 48% | 2020-12-20 | Lost |
| 1014 | 972 | 56% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 909 | 925 | 48% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 940 | 971 | 46% | 2017-01-04 | Won |
| 1274 | 1008 | 82% | 2016-01-18 | Won |
| 1052 | 916 | 69% | 2013-11-22 | Won |
| 973 | 891 | 62% | 2013-11-16 | Lost |
| 991 | 1096 | 35% | 2013-08-09 | Won |
| 1060 | 1028 | 55% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1028 | 1060 | 45% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1027 | 1274 | 19% | 2013-03-22 | Won |
| 1143 | 891 | 81% | 2013-03-07 | Won |
| 950 | 804 | 70% | 2013-02-04 | Won |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1033.6 vs 1005.6 has a 54.02% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).