Semper Paratus
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 53 (21 on the archive and 32 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Canadian): 36
Defender wins (German): 17
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 909 | 1066 | 29% | 2025-11-02 | Won |
| 919 | 1056 | 31% | 2025-02-22 | Won |
| 1133 | 868 | 82% | 2024-12-29 | Won |
| 1074 | 1074 | 50% | 2024-10-20 | Lost |
| 1005 | 961 | 56% | 2022-11-12 | Lost |
| 1022 | 1031 | 49% | 2022-07-16 | Won |
| 982 | 999 | 48% | 2022-07-14 | Won |
| 919 | 1160 | 20% | 2021-06-20 | Lost |
| 1163 | 1176 | 48% | 2020-12-20 | Lost |
| 1056 | 952 | 65% | 2020-05-01 | Won |
| 988 | 924 | 59% | 2020-04-05 | Lost |
| 940 | 971 | 46% | 2017-01-04 | Won |
| 1220 | 1030 | 75% | 2016-01-18 | Won |
| 974 | 915 | 58% | 2013-11-22 | Won |
| 975 | 1133 | 29% | 2013-11-16 | Lost |
| 972 | 1108 | 31% | 2013-08-09 | Won |
| 1135 | 1007 | 68% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1007 | 1135 | 32% | 2013-07-01 | Won |
| 1028 | 1220 | 25% | 2013-03-22 | Won |
| 1131 | 1133 | 50% | 2013-03-07 | Won |
| 884 | 804 | 61% | 2013-02-04 | Won |
Attacking (15 wins) average ELOs: 1020.8 vs 1034.4 has a 48.03% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).