The Roer Bridgehead
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 23 (10 on the archive and 13 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 11
Defender wins (German): 12
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1000 | 992 | 51% | 2025-03-08 | | Lost |
| 992 | 1000 | 49% | 2025-03-05 | | Lost |
| 1143 | 992 | 70% | 2021-11-27 | | Won |
| 992 | 1143 | 30% | 2021-11-26 | | Lost |
| 1092 | 1159 | 40% | 2021-04-22 | | Won |
| 878 | 1102 | 22% | 2020-10-11 | | Lost |
| 1226 | 1000 | 79% | 2015-10-17 | | Lost |
| 972 | 1062 | 37% | 2014-10-05 | | Lost |
| 1007 | 1129 | 33% | 2013-07-14 | | Won |
| 933 | 1183 | 19% | 2013-03-09 | | Lost |
Attacking (3 wins) average ELOs: 1023.5 vs 1076.2 has a 42.47% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).