Old Friends
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 103 (28 on the archive and 75 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 44
Defender wins (German): 58
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 977 | 977 | 50% | 2024-03-23 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1074 | 45% | 2024-03-08 | Lost |
| 1176 | 1124 | 57% | 2021-09-01 | Lost |
| 991 | 1032 | 44% | 2021-05-31 | Won |
| 866 | 899 | 45% | 2020-08-11 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1223 | 25% | 2019-08-22 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1063 | 52% | 2019-03-23 | Won |
| 1082 | 1063 | 53% | 2018-12-20 | Tied |
| 981 | 1152 | 27% | 2018-09-28 | Won |
| 1067 | 846 | 78% | 2018-08-20 | Won |
| 986 | 960 | 54% | 2018-03-17 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1010 | 70% | 2017-10-04 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1062 | 81% | 2017-05-06 | Won |
| 961 | 1098 | 31% | 2017-03-03 | Lost |
| 1215 | 993 | 78% | 2017-02-19 | Won |
| 1223 | 1171 | 57% | 2016-12-29 | Won |
| 1223 | 1136 | 62% | 2016-12-09 | Lost |
| 1162 | 990 | 73% | 2016-09-19 | Won |
| 1234 | 1090 | 70% | 2016-09-01 | Lost |
| 939 | 1221 | 16% | 2016-08-30 | Lost |
| 1193 | 870 | 87% | 2016-08-10 | Won |
| 1099 | 1012 | 62% | 2016-06-27 | Won |
| 1107 | 1039 | 60% | 2016-06-03 | Won |
| 1060 | 1028 | 55% | 2016-05-03 | Lost |
| 1118 | 898 | 78% | 2016-04-29 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1062 | 49% | 2016-04-28 | Lost |
| 895 | 998 | 36% | 2016-04-07 | Lost |
| 1079 | 1146 | 40% | 2014-01-20 | Won |
Attacking (12 wins) average ELOs: 1082.4 vs 1044.2 has a 55.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).