Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 117 (48 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 53
Defender wins (Polish): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1088 | 942 | 70% | 2026-01-10 | Lost |
| 993 | 1025 | 45% | 2025-12-02 | Won |
| 954 | 988 | 45% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1061 | 1085 | 47% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1040 | 1072 | 45% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1039 | 996 | 56% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 923 | 999 | 39% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1076 | 1076 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 973 | 988 | 48% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1206 | 999 | 77% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 984 | 1065 | 39% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1199 | 989 | 77% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1080 | 950 | 68% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1133 | 851 | 84% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 995 | 52% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 999 | 48% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 988 | 883 | 65% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1335 | 40% | 2023-02-10 | Lost |
| 1264 | 1229 | 55% | 2023-01-30 | Won |
| 924 | 1190 | 18% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1018 | 56% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1095 | 60% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1080 | 1189 | 35% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1051 | 1175 | 33% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 993 | 1218 | 21% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 863 | 884 | 47% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 981 | 920 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 974 | 1020 | 43% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 974 | 57% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1218 | 1018 | 76% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1019 | 1130 | 35% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 942 | 988 | 43% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1000 | 988 | 52% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 915 | 1006 | 37% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1116 | 1080 | 55% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1029 | 54% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 988 | 999 | 48% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 902 | 982 | 39% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1123 | 982 | 69% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 727 | 1140 | 8% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1234 | 943 | 84% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 917 | 1019 | 36% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 987 | 1040 | 42% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 1195 | 1131 | 59% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1167 | 1195 | 46% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 939 | 1206 | 18% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1018 | 1036 | 47% | | Won |
Attacking (17 wins) average ELOs: 1043 vs 1045.8 has a 49.6% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).