Before the Blunder
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 115 (46 on the archive and 69 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 52
Defender wins (Polish): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1087 | 942 | 70% | 2026-01-10 | Lost |
| 976 | 1019 | 44% | 2025-12-02 | Won |
| 953 | 950 | 50% | 2024-12-31 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1083 | 47% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1060 | 1072 | 48% | 2024-11-15 | Lost |
| 1024 | 1003 | 53% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 923 | 1013 | 37% | 2024-11-14 | Won |
| 1066 | 1066 | 50% | 2024-04-22 | Won |
| 973 | 950 | 53% | 2024-04-09 | Won |
| 1253 | 1010 | 80% | 2023-11-19 | Won |
| 980 | 1064 | 38% | 2023-10-09 | Lost |
| 1212 | 989 | 78% | 2023-09-19 | Lost |
| 1067 | 951 | 66% | 2023-03-25 | Lost |
| 1212 | 889 | 87% | 2023-03-19 | Lost |
| 1011 | 1015 | 49% | 2023-03-14 | Lost |
| 987 | 1010 | 47% | 2023-03-09 | Won |
| 950 | 883 | 60% | 2023-02-27 | Lost |
| 914 | 1143 | 21% | 2022-11-11 | Lost |
| 1041 | 1021 | 53% | 2022-07-12 | Lost |
| 1166 | 1098 | 60% | 2022-02-25 | Lost |
| 1067 | 1203 | 31% | 2021-11-27 | Won |
| 1050 | 1182 | 32% | 2020-10-08 | Won |
| 993 | 1217 | 22% | 2020-06-30 | Lost |
| 864 | 882 | 47% | 2020-06-03 | Lost |
| 980 | 919 | 59% | 2020-05-01 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1020 | 51% | 2019-11-18 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1028 | 49% | 2019-09-11 | Won |
| 1217 | 1021 | 76% | 2019-05-12 | Won |
| 1031 | 1120 | 37% | 2019-02-09 | Won |
| 942 | 950 | 49% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 1000 | 950 | 57% | 2018-12-29 | Lost |
| 917 | 1023 | 35% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 1105 | 1075 | 54% | 2018-11-16 | Won |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 950 | 999 | 43% | 2017-09-17 | Lost |
| 903 | 972 | 40% | 2017-08-03 | Lost |
| 1164 | 972 | 75% | 2017-07-02 | Lost |
| 731 | 1140 | 9% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
| 1340 | 949 | 90% | 2016-09-02 | Won |
| 917 | 1031 | 34% | 2016-08-13 | Lost |
| 988 | 1073 | 38% | 2016-08-05 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1113 | 46% | 2016-06-26 | Lost |
| 1184 | 1088 | 63% | 2016-04-13 | Lost |
| 938 | 1253 | 14% | 2016-03-28 | Lost |
| 1226 | 1136 | 63% | 2016-03-26 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1118 | 46% | | Won |
Attacking (16 wins) average ELOs: 1037.2 vs 1036.7 has a 50.07% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).