A Wave Breaking with the Tide
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (12 on the archive and 19 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Polish): 18
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1051 | 1193 | 31% | 2026-03-07 | | Won |
| 1137 | 1152 | 48% | 2025-02-08 | | Won |
| 1139 | 1029 | 65% | 2024-04-08 | | Lost |
| 1098 | 1000 | 64% | 2022-06-30 | | Won |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-09-22 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1218 | 21% | 2021-09-22 | | Lost |
| 983 | 1000 | 48% | 2021-07-31 | | Won |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2021-01-17 | | Won |
| 969 | 989 | 47% | 2020-06-26 | | Won |
| 975 | 1123 | 30% | 2018-12-02 | | Lost |
| 1056 | 1120 | 41% | 2017-02-19 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 1063 | 41% | 2016-12-02 | | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1031.2 vs 1071 has a 44.29% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).