Le Manoir
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (21 on the archive and 21 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 27
Defender wins (German): 15
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 974 | 962 | 52% | 2025-05-14 | | Won |
| 953 | 984 | 46% | 2024-07-08 | | Lost |
| 1047 | 1000 | 57% | 2024-02-08 | | Won |
| 692 | 1000 | 15% | 2023-08-05 | | Won |
| 1000 | 914 | 62% | 2023-08-01 | | Won |
| 987 | 861 | 67% | 2023-01-14 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1004 | 49% | 2022-10-16 | | Won |
| 1000 | 981 | 53% | 2022-05-01 | | Won |
| 987 | 974 | 52% | 2021-03-18 | | Lost |
| 1289 | 974 | 86% | 2021-03-16 | | Won |
| 1172 | 974 | 76% | 2021-03-15 | | Won |
| 974 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-03-13 | | Won |
| 843 | 932 | 37% | 2021-02-11 | | Lost |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2020-03-14 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 921 | 61% | 2020-02-14 | | Won |
| 1009 | 1138 | 32% | 2019-10-17 | | Lost |
| 1066 | 1000 | 59% | 2019-08-13 | | Lost |
| 904 | 948 | 44% | 2017-03-30 | | Lost |
| 994 | 1000 | 49% | 2017-01-21 | | Lost |
| 1090 | 1000 | 63% | 2016-10-29 | | Lost |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2016-10-09 | | Lost |
Attacking (11 wins) average ELOs: 998.1 vs 990.1 has a 51.14% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).