Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 445 (23 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 227
Defender wins (American): 218
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1041 | 1041 | 50% | 2024-11-13 | Won |
| 1152 | 1152 | 50% | 2024-05-05 | Won |
| 995 | 764 | 79% | 2023-09-20 | Won |
| 1050 | 1021 | 54% | 2023-09-02 | Won |
| 1154 | 1178 | 47% | 2023-04-13 | Won |
| 909 | 939 | 46% | 2022-11-23 | Lost |
| 1016 | 987 | 54% | 2022-09-20 | Won |
| 971 | 892 | 61% | 2021-07-18 | Lost |
| 909 | 1036 | 32% | 2021-05-21 | Lost |
| 987 | 928 | 58% | 2020-12-29 | Won |
| 1220 | 928 | 84% | 2020-12-19 | Won |
| 985 | 956 | 54% | 2020-12-03 | Won |
| 1064 | 870 | 75% | 2020-11-07 | Won |
| 982 | 1032 | 43% | 2020-09-27 | Lost |
| 864 | 998 | 32% | 2020-04-14 | Won |
| 909 | 886 | 53% | 2020-03-03 | Won |
| 964 | 1268 | 15% | 2019-12-16 | Lost |
| 1181 | 1117 | 59% | 2018-03-28 | Won |
| 1117 | 1181 | 41% | 2018-03-26 | Lost |
| 1058 | 968 | 63% | 2018-02-04 | Lost |
| 1219 | 889 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | Lost |
| 1104 | 1034 | 60% | 2016-09-21 | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1037.3 vs 1012.7 has a 53.55% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).