Under the Noel Trees
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 446 (25 on the archive and 422 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 223
Defender wins (American): 223
With balance for the defender (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (German): 0
Defender wins (American): 1
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Balance | Outcome |
|---|
| 1057 | 1000 | 58% | 2026-06-23 | | Lost |
| 980 | 1000 | 47% | 2026-03-21 | D | Lost |
| 1041 | 1000 | 56% | 2024-11-13 | | Won |
| 1185 | 1000 | 74% | 2024-05-05 | | Won |
| 991 | 1000 | 49% | 2023-09-20 | | Won |
| 1050 | 1000 | 57% | 2023-09-02 | | Won |
| 1164 | 1000 | 72% | 2023-04-13 | | Won |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2022-11-23 | | Lost |
| 1004 | 987 | 52% | 2022-09-20 | | Won |
| 971 | 1000 | 46% | 2021-07-18 | | Lost |
| 951 | 1095 | 30% | 2021-05-21 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 932 | 60% | 2020-12-29 | | Won |
| 1220 | 932 | 84% | 2020-12-19 | | Won |
| 1000 | 970 | 54% | 2020-12-03 | | Won |
| 1023 | 940 | 62% | 2020-11-07 | | Won |
| 989 | 1049 | 41% | 2020-09-27 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 965 | 55% | 2020-04-14 | | Won |
| 951 | 1000 | 43% | 2020-03-03 | | Won |
| 1156 | 1203 | 43% | 2019-12-16 | | Lost |
| 1075 | 1000 | 61% | 2018-03-28 | | Won |
| 1000 | 1075 | 39% | 2018-03-26 | | Lost |
| 1000 | 967 | 55% | 2018-02-04 | | Lost |
| 1218 | 893 | 87% | 2017-06-07 | | Won |
| 1008 | 1226 | 22% | 2017-02-10 | | Lost |
| 1116 | 1035 | 61% | 2016-09-21 | | Lost |
Attacking (14 wins) average ELOs: 1044 vs 1010.8 has a 54.77% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).