Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 39 (13 on the archive and 26 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 16
Defender wins (German): 22
With balance for the attacker (only):
Games played: 1
Attacker wins (American): 1
Defender wins (German): 0
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1008 | 1061 | 42% | 2026-04-08 | Lost |
| 971 | 1012 | 44% | 2026-03-18 | Won |
| 956 | 1102 | 30% | 2025-09-20 | Lost |
| 1343 | 1245 | 64% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 706 | 990 | 16% | 2022-03-14 | Lost |
| 1136 | 1089 | 57% | 2022-02-17 | Won |
| 1065 | 979 | 62% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1199 | 1128 | 60% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 961 | 1133 | 27% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1002 | 956 | 57% | 2020-04-16 | Lost |
| 1069 | 977 | 63% | 2017-12-19 | Won |
| 1123 | 1118 | 51% | 2017-04-28 | Lost |
| 970 | 1123 | 29% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1039.2 vs 1070.2 has a 45.54% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).