Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 36 (11 on the archive and 25 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 17
Defender wins (German): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 860 | 1103 | 20% | 2025-09-20 | Lost |
| 1344 | 1180 | 72% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 756 | 986 | 21% | 2022-03-14 | Lost |
| 1157 | 1019 | 69% | 2022-02-17 | Won |
| 1020 | 995 | 54% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1248 | 991 | 81% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 969 | 1114 | 30% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1003 | 860 | 69% | 2020-04-16 | Lost |
| 1079 | 975 | 65% | 2017-12-19 | Won |
| 1139 | 1138 | 50% | 2017-04-28 | Lost |
| 970 | 1139 | 27% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1049.5 vs 1045.5 has a 50.59% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).