Ace in the Hole
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 36 (11 on the archive and 25 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 17
Defender wins (German): 19
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 927 | 1106 | 26% | 2025-09-20 | Lost |
| 1346 | 1208 | 69% | 2024-06-15 | Won |
| 755 | 978 | 22% | 2022-03-14 | Lost |
| 1134 | 999 | 69% | 2022-02-17 | Won |
| 1021 | 986 | 55% | 2022-01-15 | Lost |
| 1196 | 902 | 84% | 2021-03-05 | Won |
| 967 | 1115 | 30% | 2020-10-07 | Lost |
| 1003 | 927 | 61% | 2020-04-16 | Lost |
| 1183 | 954 | 79% | 2017-12-19 | Won |
| 1153 | 1151 | 50% | 2017-04-28 | Lost |
| 971 | 1153 | 26% | 2016-09-26 | Lost |
Attacking (4 wins) average ELOs: 1059.6 vs 1043.5 has a 52.31% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).