Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (12 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (British): 30
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 957 | 999 | 44% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1219 | 885 | 87% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1116 | 56% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1031 | 59% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 928 | 41% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1106 | 1091 | 52% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 944 | 966 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 949 | 1044 | 37% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1058 | 1089 | 46% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1037 | 952 | 62% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1189 | 959 | 79% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1055.2 vs 1012.3 has a 56.13% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).