Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 50 (14 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 19
Defender wins (British): 31
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1026 | 1069 | 44% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1054 | 920 | 68% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1042 | 65% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 980 | 1073 | 37% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 865 | 919 | 42% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1102 | 1099 | 50% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 944 | 965 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 934 | 1066 | 32% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1264 | 1040 | 78% | 2017-10-20 | Won |
| 1117 | 983 | 68% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 984 | 1344 | 11% | 2017-05-13 | Lost |
| 1027 | 893 | 68% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1245 | 1043 | 76% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1055.6 vs 1038.9 has a 52.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).