Castles on the Horizon
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 48 (12 on the archive and 36 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (German): 18
Defender wins (British): 30
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 957 | 983 | 46% | 2024-08-15 | Won |
| 1218 | 892 | 87% | 2022-12-11 | Lost |
| 1155 | 1060 | 63% | 2022-07-16 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1009 | 68% | 2021-10-06 | Lost |
| 866 | 937 | 40% | 2021-08-17 | Won |
| 1126 | 1091 | 55% | 2020-04-30 | Won |
| 944 | 966 | 47% | 2020-02-29 | Lost |
| 999 | 1011 | 48% | 2019-06-01 | Won |
| 1039 | 1061 | 47% | 2017-10-05 | Won |
| 1053 | 980 | 60% | 2017-05-01 | Lost |
| 1209 | 1061 | 70% | 2017-04-07 | Lost |
| 1088 | 1088 | 50% | 2017-03-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1065.9 vs 1011.6 has a 57.76% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).