Red Tears Shed on Gray
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 97 (23 on the archive and 74 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Romanian): 52
Defender wins (Russian): 45
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 962 | 1038 | 39% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1096 | 1243 | 30% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1211 | 1245 | 45% | 2025-07-25 | Won |
| 1219 | 1018 | 76% | 2025-01-26 | Won |
| 1061 | 1243 | 26% | 2024-11-16 | Lost |
| 956 | 986 | 46% | 2024-02-09 | Won |
| 855 | 986 | 32% | 2024-01-03 | Won |
| 1012 | 1080 | 40% | 2023-08-23 | Won |
| 1143 | 1172 | 46% | 2022-02-06 | Won |
| 1077 | 881 | 76% | 2020-08-29 | Won |
| 890 | 1040 | 30% | 2020-03-11 | Lost |
| 1327 | 1342 | 48% | 2018-12-10 | Lost |
| 1127 | 1021 | 65% | 2018-10-05 | Won |
| 1052 | 910 | 69% | 2018-08-18 | Lost |
| 1070 | 1219 | 30% | 2018-04-27 | Won |
| 1021 | 1058 | 45% | 2018-03-08 | Lost |
| 1164 | 1226 | 41% | 2018-03-07 | Lost |
| 982 | 1130 | 30% | 2018-02-10 | Lost |
| 1077 | 958 | 66% | 2018-02-10 | Won |
| 953 | 1126 | 27% | 2018-01-16 | Lost |
| 1313 | 1127 | 74% | 2018-01-06 | Won |
| 1117 | 1136 | 47% | 2017-12-27 | Lost |
| 1130 | 997 | 68% | 2017-10-23 | Lost |
Attacking (13 wins) average ELOs: 1078.9 vs 1094.9 has a 47.71% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).