First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 120 (42 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 57
Defender wins (German): 62
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 984 | 1099 | 34% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 888 | 909 | 47% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1046 | 1022 | 53% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1397 | 1009 | 90% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 881 | 867 | 52% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 1016 | 1017 | 50% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1067 | 969 | 64% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1068 | 958 | 65% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1021 | 1186 | 28% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1099 | 1113 | 48% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1062 | 1149 | 38% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 960 | 1139 | 26% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 981 | 1030 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1034 | 954 | 61% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1043 | 1106 | 41% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1113 | 994 | 66% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 958 | 1105 | 30% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1122 | 869 | 81% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1188 | 1098 | 63% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1226 | 1214 | 52% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 986 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1099 | 1088 | 52% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 898 | 934 | 45% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1261 | 1397 | 31% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 879 | 1015 | 31% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1115 | 48% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1051 | 1094 | 44% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1050 | 31% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 918 | 929 | 48% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 952 | 990 | 45% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1198 | 41% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1154 | 990 | 72% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 953 | 1007 | 42% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1152 | 857 | 85% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1307 | 1082 | 79% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1046 | 52% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1086 | 1038 | 57% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1077 | 1043 | 55% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1184 | 1223 | 44% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 807 | 1001 | 25% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 866 | 1005 | 31% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1144 | 1144 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (22 wins) average ELOs: 1050.9 vs 1046.3 has a 50.65% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).