First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 124 (45 on the archive and 79 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 59
Defender wins (German): 64
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1028 | 957 | 60% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 864 | 940 | 39% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 864 | 940 | 39% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1022 | 59% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1416 | 1029 | 90% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 900 | 866 | 55% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 966 | 1135 | 27% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1031 | 1012 | 53% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 956 | 65% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 995 | 958 | 55% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1149 | 1052 | 64% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1064 | 1151 | 38% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1003 | 1110 | 35% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1036 | 909 | 68% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1125 | 1052 | 60% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1039 | 1111 | 40% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1060 | 1109 | 43% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1191 | 844 | 88% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1195 | 1127 | 60% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1227 | 1219 | 51% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1078 | 1028 | 57% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1017 | 950 | 60% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1262 | 1416 | 29% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 876 | 1118 | 20% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1109 | 1154 | 44% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1096 | 43% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1029 | 34% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 890 | 929 | 44% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1005 | 947 | 58% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1132 | 51% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1177 | 947 | 79% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1066 | 988 | 61% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1127 | 857 | 83% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1329 | 1096 | 79% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1064 | 1043 | 53% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1128 | 1039 | 63% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 779 | 987 | 23% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 893 | 1005 | 34% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | | Won |
Attacking (24 wins) average ELOs: 1054.8 vs 1041.4 has a 51.93% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).