First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 122 (44 on the archive and 78 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 58
Defender wins (German): 63
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 864 | 934 | 40% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 984 | 1111 | 32% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 864 | 934 | 40% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1084 | 1022 | 59% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1412 | 1029 | 90% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 928 | 866 | 59% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 986 | 1116 | 32% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1023 | 1021 | 50% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1067 | 929 | 69% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 996 | 958 | 55% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1044 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1089 | 58% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1063 | 1149 | 38% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 975 | 1106 | 32% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1035 | 903 | 68% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1123 | 1003 | 67% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1043 | 1107 | 41% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1058 | 1106 | 43% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1219 | 842 | 90% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1187 | 1136 | 57% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1227 | 1219 | 51% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 986 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1079 | 1036 | 56% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 899 | 952 | 42% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1262 | 1412 | 30% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 878 | 1140 | 18% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1141 | 44% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1094 | 44% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1046 | 31% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 856 | 929 | 40% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1009 | 959 | 57% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1137 | 1132 | 51% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1189 | 959 | 79% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1084 | 950 | 68% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1157 | 853 | 85% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1310 | 1109 | 76% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1084 | 46% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1116 | 1039 | 61% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1067 | 1043 | 53% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1223 | 38% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 786 | 1019 | 21% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 869 | 1005 | 31% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1121 | 1117 | 51% | | Won |
Attacking (23 wins) average ELOs: 1053.9 vs 1043.4 has a 51.51% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).