First Timers
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 126 (46 on the archive and 80 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American): 69
Defender wins (German): 56
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 975 | 955 | 53% | 2025-10-25 | Won |
| 983 | 994 | 48% | 2025-06-20 | Won |
| 844 | 966 | 33% | 2025-01-16 | Lost |
| 969 | 1117 | 30% | 2024-10-11 | Lost |
| 844 | 966 | 33% | 2023-01-12 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1022 | 59% | 2022-06-22 | Won |
| 1419 | 1021 | 91% | 2022-06-10 | Won |
| 927 | 866 | 59% | 2022-05-25 | Lost |
| 980 | 1135 | 29% | 2022-05-07 | Won |
| 1029 | 1014 | 52% | 2021-08-25 | Won |
| 1066 | 962 | 65% | 2021-05-01 | Won |
| 1012 | 958 | 58% | 2021-02-13 | Won |
| 1045 | 1163 | 34% | 2020-12-23 | Lost |
| 1126 | 1029 | 64% | 2020-10-30 | Won |
| 1074 | 1151 | 39% | 2020-10-28 | Won |
| 1003 | 1103 | 36% | 2020-08-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1031 | 43% | 2020-04-13 | Lost |
| 1033 | 950 | 62% | 2020-03-29 | Won |
| 1114 | 1053 | 59% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1054 | 1111 | 42% | 2019-10-10 | Won |
| 1100 | 1124 | 47% | 2019-08-28 | Lost |
| 1138 | 825 | 86% | 2019-03-07 | Won |
| 1196 | 1174 | 53% | 2019-01-28 | Won |
| 1229 | 1217 | 52% | 2019-01-18 | Lost |
| 985 | 892 | 63% | 2019-01-12 | Won |
| 1065 | 1037 | 54% | 2019-01-06 | Won |
| 1014 | 860 | 71% | 2018-12-29 | Won |
| 1263 | 1419 | 29% | 2018-12-27 | Lost |
| 876 | 1073 | 24% | 2018-12-24 | Lost |
| 1102 | 1143 | 44% | 2018-12-21 | Lost |
| 1050 | 1109 | 42% | 2018-12-08 | Tied |
| 911 | 1037 | 33% | 2018-12-02 | Lost |
| 941 | 929 | 52% | 2018-12-01 | Lost |
| 1019 | 1113 | 37% | 2018-11-18 | Lost |
| 1138 | 1131 | 51% | 2018-11-10 | Lost |
| 1160 | 1113 | 57% | 2018-11-10 | Won |
| 1011 | 1053 | 44% | 2018-10-21 | Lost |
| 1164 | 853 | 86% | 2018-10-20 | Won |
| 1340 | 1090 | 81% | 2018-10-17 | Lost |
| 1058 | 1082 | 47% | 2018-10-12 | Won |
| 1059 | 1041 | 53% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1117 | 1054 | 59% | 2018-10-06 | Won |
| 1136 | 1226 | 37% | 2018-09-10 | Won |
| 784 | 1023 | 20% | 2018-09-08 | Lost |
| 940 | 1005 | 41% | 2018-09-01 | Lost |
| 1091 | 1118 | 46% | | Won |
Attacking (25 wins) average ELOs: 1053.2 vs 1050.2 has a 50.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).