Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 42 (12 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 19
Defender wins (German (SS)): 22
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 982 | 999 | 48% | 2025-10-23 | Lost |
| 1145 | 1051 | 63% | 2024-04-11 | Tied |
| 1041 | 1014 | 54% | 2023-08-25 | Lost |
| 995 | 1083 | 38% | 2022-10-27 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2022-03-01 | Lost |
| 1135 | 1029 | 65% | 2021-05-15 | Lost |
| 931 | 964 | 45% | 2021-01-26 | Lost |
| 1213 | 1174 | 56% | 2020-07-25 | Won |
| 1212 | 986 | 79% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 982 | 1226 | 20% | 2019-06-28 | Lost |
| 986 | 984 | 50% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1238 | 1172 | 59% | 2019-02-13 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1067.8 vs 1055.3 has a 51.79% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).