Insurrection at Cividale
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 41 (11 on the archive and 30 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (Italian): 19
Defender wins (German (SS)): 21
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1148 | 1068 | 61% | 2024-04-11 | Tied |
| 1041 | 1123 | 38% | 2023-08-25 | Lost |
| 954 | 1198 | 20% | 2022-10-27 | Lost |
| 953 | 982 | 46% | 2022-03-01 | Lost |
| 1119 | 1028 | 63% | 2021-05-15 | Lost |
| 899 | 951 | 43% | 2021-01-26 | Lost |
| 1152 | 1148 | 51% | 2020-07-25 | Won |
| 1141 | 991 | 70% | 2020-02-18 | Lost |
| 1047 | 1226 | 26% | 2019-06-28 | Lost |
| 991 | 997 | 49% | 2019-05-13 | Won |
| 1333 | 1096 | 80% | 2019-02-13 | Lost |
Attacking (2 wins) average ELOs: 1070.7 vs 1073.5 has a 49.61% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).