20 Years Later
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 32 (18 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 16
Defender wins (German): 14
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1176 | 1152 | 53% | 2025-03-22 | Lost |
| 1083 | 1083 | 50% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 986 | 967 | 53% | 2024-05-24 | Won |
| 1037 | 780 | 81% | 2023-08-02 | Lost |
| 1169 | 1062 | 65% | 2023-04-29 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1152 | 40% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1044 | 1247 | 24% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1427 | 1431 | 49% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1204 | 27% | 2020-04-23 | Lost |
| 1204 | 1032 | 73% | 2020-04-23 | Lost |
| 1043 | 1072 | 46% | 2020-03-31 | Won |
| 1040 | 1010 | 54% | 2020-01-22 | Won |
| 1043 | 1072 | 46% | 2020-01-14 | Tied |
| 1072 | 1043 | 54% | 2020-01-14 | Tied |
| 982 | 1181 | 24% | 2019-11-27 | Lost |
| 1037 | 1044 | 49% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 780 | 1037 | 19% | 2019-08-04 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1181 | 52% | 2019-05-15 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1079.4 vs 1097.2 has a 47.44% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).