20 Years Later
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 31 (17 on the archive and 14 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (French): 16
Defender wins (German): 13
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 1090 | 1090 | 50% | 2024-09-09 | Won |
| 1044 | 949 | 63% | 2024-05-24 | Won |
| 1036 | 786 | 81% | 2023-08-02 | Lost |
| 1159 | 1061 | 64% | 2023-04-29 | Lost |
| 1082 | 1152 | 40% | 2022-01-26 | Won |
| 1014 | 1254 | 20% | 2021-03-20 | Lost |
| 1427 | 1431 | 49% | 2021-01-29 | Lost |
| 1032 | 1228 | 24% | 2020-04-23 | Lost |
| 1228 | 1032 | 76% | 2020-04-23 | Lost |
| 1094 | 1031 | 59% | 2020-03-31 | Won |
| 1040 | 1005 | 55% | 2020-01-22 | Won |
| 1031 | 1094 | 41% | 2020-01-14 | Tied |
| 1094 | 1031 | 59% | 2020-01-14 | Tied |
| 991 | 1170 | 26% | 2019-11-27 | Lost |
| 1036 | 1044 | 49% | 2019-10-19 | Lost |
| 786 | 1036 | 19% | 2019-08-04 | Lost |
| 1192 | 1170 | 53% | 2019-05-15 | Lost |
Attacking (5 wins) average ELOs: 1080.9 vs 1092 has a 48.41% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).