The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34 (10 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 967 | 986 | 47% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1162 | 964 | 76% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1192 | 26% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 899 | 1043 | 30% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1064 | 1072 | 49% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1065 | 1107 | 44% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1028 | 1037 | 49% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1152 | 998 | 71% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1198 | 1234 | 45% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1111 | 1313 | 24% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1065.2 vs 1094.6 has a 45.78% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).