The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 34 (10 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 14
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 973 | 1041 | 40% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1110 | 981 | 68% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1254 | 19% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 917 | 998 | 39% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1074 | 1084 | 49% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1084 | 1122 | 45% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1020 | 1002 | 53% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1151 | 996 | 71% | 2020-11-01 | Won |
| 1194 | 1186 | 51% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1090 | 1340 | 19% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (7 wins) average ELOs: 1061.9 vs 1100.4 has a 44.48% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).