The Lock of Colmar
Scenario balance report
Games with no balance used/recorded: 33 (9 on the archive and 24 on ROAR)
Attacker wins (American / Free French): 13
Defender wins (German): 20
Scenario Balance Over Time
Range, where the higher the percentage, the more favourable the attacking side is. The range-width is the confidence value.
ELO vs Outcome
| Attacker ELO | Defender ELO | Expected chance to win | Date | Outcome |
|---|
| 949 | 1044 | 37% | 2024-08-23 | Won |
| 1154 | 966 | 75% | 2023-02-26 | Won |
| 1006 | 1257 | 19% | 2021-03-11 | Lost |
| 928 | 1094 | 28% | 2021-02-19 | Lost |
| 1063 | 1031 | 55% | 2021-02-15 | Won |
| 1050 | 1110 | 41% | 2021-01-02 | Lost |
| 1026 | 1036 | 49% | 2020-11-29 | Won |
| 1189 | 1248 | 42% | 2020-10-10 | Won |
| 1109 | 1310 | 24% | 2019-05-29 | Won |
Attacking (6 wins) average ELOs: 1052.7 vs 1121.8 has a 40.18% of winning (if the scenario was perfectly balanced).